The US has recently been exposed to two supply shocks; an oil price rise and the GM strike. Both are likely to reduce growth and push up inflation, but only slightly. It’s because economy-wide spending on oil is down to…
Last week, the overnight repo rate, the rate at which banks and other financial players lend to each other against super-safe collateral jumped to 10% from 2%! While this also happened during the dark days of the Lehman Brothers collapse…
The Friday File: Researchers have discovered that college students were able to keep their hands immersed in cold water for an extra 40 seconds and reported less pain if they used an expletive of their choice while their hand was…
Here’s how to shrink/fix Fannie and Freddie. First, reduce the threshold for a conforming loan to 1.5 times the median price of an existing single-family home, which is currently $284,000. Second, end support for vacation homes and cash-out refi. Third,…
As expected, the Fed dropped its benchmark rate a quarter-point to stimulate the US economy against a backdrop of global slowing, rising trade concerns, and persistently weak inflation. What happens next? Seven of 17 officials expect one more cut this…
China is among the most adversely impacted nations from the attack on the Saudi oil processing facility. As a huge oil importer, China faces higher imported energy prices on top of relentlessly slowing GDP, rising inflation due to tariffs and…
Not only did August retail sales rise a strong 0.4%, but June and July sales were revised up. We care because retail sales are about 25% of consumer spending, and consumer spending accounts for 68% of GDP. Thus, retail sales…
The Friday File: Out of 180 ranked nations, the most corrupt is Somalia, with a score of 10 out of 100. In hot pursuit; Syria and South Sudan both with scores of 13. Yemen and North Korea follow at 14.…
Recent suggestions that the Fed drop rates to zero and that we refinance our $16.7 trillion public debt are, at best, ill advised. Refinancing of US sovereign debt is without modern precedent. The instruments aren’t callable, and the fear it…
2019 will be the first year in history the majority of college-educated persons in the US labor force are women, despite women being just 46.6% of the labor force. Since 1980, women have been more than half of college grads,…