The Bowtie Economist's Daily Dose of 70-Word Wisdom


Super Swearing

05/22/2020

The Friday File: The most foul-mouthed film, based on swears/1,000 words is Nil by Mouth at 41.3, followed by Uncut Gems at 35.1 and The Wolf of Wall Street (TWWS) at 29.4. Counting by number of swear words/movie, TWWS wins…

Continuing Claims

05/21/2020

Tragically, 38.6 million persons have lost jobs since mid-March. While that number will grow over the next 6 weeks, it is slowing and should hopefully plateau by July. Thus, initial unemployment claims is no longer the key labor number. Rather,…

Collapsing C02

05/20/2020

Since peaking in 2007 at six billion tons, US carbon dioxide emissions have steadily fallen and were roughly 5 billion tons in 2019, a level first breached in the late 1980s. Falling coal consumption, from a peak of 1,150 million…

Hearty Housing

05/19/2020

April housing starts came in at 891,000, down 29.7% Y-o-Y and a level last consistently seen in 2013, but through April starts are up 3.7% YTD. Starts will probably be down Y-o-Y for the next four or five months but…

Regulatory Rejection

05/18/2020

In a proposed merger that regulators must prevent, Uber Technologies is trying to acquire Grubhub for $6 billion. Grubhub competes directly with Uber subsidiary Uber Eats. The combined firm would control slightly more than half of the third-party meal delivery…

Serial Seasons

05/15/2020

The Friday File: Back in the heyday of TV 1955-2000, when there were growing numbers of local TV affiliates, the average TV series lasted two years and had about 20 episodes/year. With the rise of streaming and away from syndication,…

Understanding Unemployment

05/14/2020

The unemployment rate for those with less than a HS diploma is now a staggering 21.2%, up from just 5.2% at the end of 2019. For those with a HS diploma, the respective numbers are 17.2%, up from 3.7% in…

Underfunded Universities

05/13/2020

US higher education will soon suffer a raft of smaller college closures. This is due to endowments and endowment income being down, sports revenue being nonexistent, and refunds being up due to Covid-19 campus closures. Add in tax revenue declines,…

Data Decline

05/12/2020

In 20Q1, US GDP fell 4.8% on an annualized basis; 1.2% on a quarterly basis. In 20Q2, I expect US GDP to fall by 30% annualized, or 7.5% on a quarterly basis. Combined, the GDP decline in 20H1 totals 8.7%.…

Employment Exodus

05/11/2020

The 20.5 million job losses in April wiped out a decade of job gains and are ten times the previous record monthly job loss of 2 million set in 11/45. The only silver lining, 18 million of those losing their…

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