638,000 net new jobs in October, a rise in the labor force participation rate from 61.4% to 61.7%, and a steep fall in the unemployment rate from 7.9% to 6.9% in the face of waning fiscal stimulus are excellent indicators.…
The Friday File: Since 1968, the Motion Picture Association of America has rated movies. Studios seek movie ratings because major theaters will generally not show unrated films. In 1984, the PG-13 rating began. Since then, very few G or (dreaded)…
Despite a lack of clarity about who the election winners will be, we can be certain that large fiscal stimulus is a loser. Market hopes of unified government leading to trillions in aid have been largely dashed as divided government…
This is the 59th US presidential election. The first and only one to be held in an odd numbered year saw George Washington defeat John Adams in 1789. Adams, Jefferson, and Madison followed. Those were candidates! The Adams’ were the…
Since 1860, a Republican has occupied the White House for 95 years, a Democrat 65. The annualized S&P 500 return during the 65 Democratic years of control was 8.4%, 8.3% when the President was a Republican, a statistically insignificant difference.…
The Friday File: The percentage of US adults planning to wear a Halloween costume this year is 25%, down from 31% last year. By generation, 46% of Gen Z’ers will dress up, compared to 50% last year. Among Millennials, 43%…
After declining by a record 9%, or 31.4% if annualized in 20Q2, 20Q3 GDP has come in at a simply stunning 7.4%, or 33.1% if annualized! At this point, the US economy is 3.5% smaller than it was on 12/31/19,…
Over long periods of time, I suspect income inequality will systematically worsen. When first entering the labor force, workers generally know little and get paid poorly. However, labor productivity of educated, skilled workers steadily rises due to technological improvements. Thus,…
In 12Q1, corporate profits surged and hit $1.88 trillion. Real corporate profits have never been higher since, despite recently lower tax rates. It’s because of the business cycle. Early in the cycle, when unemployment is high, wages stagnate and capital…