While housing permits are running at 1.64 million/year, their best level since 9/06, the improvement is uneven. In the Northeast, permits are at 200,000/year and have been flat for decades. In the Midwest, permits are also at 200,000/year and have…
Despite better growth in the US than in almost all other developed nations, counterintuitively the US dollar continues declining in value. It is primarily because the Fed has promised to keep rates where they are for a long time, even…
Despite job growth stalling, household spending sliding, and Covid-19 spreading, economically speaking 2021 is shaping up well. Exceptionally expansive fiscal policy is/will be critical, as will the unprecedented promise of low rates for much longer from the Fed, which should…
Despite (finally!) passage of the $900 billion Covid-19 pandemic relief bill into law, 21Q1 GDP will rise by, at best, 2% because said aid has come late and the pandemic remains largely uncontrolled. But the aid will help as time…
I want to take this opportunity to thank you all for your continued interest in my daily economics blog. You all enrich my life in many ways, and I am deeply appreciative. I wish you and yours the best year…
The percentage of us that WFH will be much higher even after vaccinations and a return to the New Normal. This is because: there’s no longer any stigma, it’s working much better than was expected, IT investments to enable working…
President Trump’s proposal giving $2,000/adult and $600/child, up from $600/person subject to income limits will cost $300 billion extra. The House bill giving $2,000/person subject to identical income limits will cost $465 billion more. In 21Q1, the benefits will be…
While the economy grew strongly through 10/20, growth is quickly decelerating. In November, personal income declined 1.1%, savings rates continued falling, and personal spending declined 0.4%, with spending on durables down 1.7%, nondurables down 0.6%, and services off 0.2%. Spending…
Inflation, measured by the Christmas Price Index and based on purchasing each day’s items once in “The Twelve Days of Christmas,” fell a staggering 58.5% in 2020 to $16,168.40 from $38,993.59 in 2019. Why the huge price drop? Social distancing…
All else equal, sloppily wrapped gifts cause recipients to respond more favorably to the gift; the more elegantly wrapped the gift, the higher the recipient expectations. But all’s not equal. When gifts come from acquaintances, recipients are more enthusiastic with…