Recently, the yield on the two-year Treasury rose slightly above the 10-year Treasury rate, a phenomenon known as an inverted yield curve, often a harbinger of recession or at least a slump and bad times. That said, which pairs of…
The Friday File: In an effort to raise money for cash-strapped nations, ICANN, the International Corporation for Assigned Names and Numbers for the web, will henceforth allow governments to impose an emoji tax every time one is used. While negotiations…
In the US, Covid-19 is making its way from pandemic to endemic, as resistance to Covid and its increasingly infectious new variants rises. Conversely, in China the problems are worsening. Their zero-tolerance approach worked only as long as Covid-19 was…
Prior to Russia’s Ukraine invasion, Russia exported 5 million bbl/day of oil, 5% of world consumption. The Saudis could boost production by 2 million bbl/day and the UAE by 1 million. However, neither shows any inclination of doing so. US…
With the Russian invasion of Ukraine now entering its second month and the attendant devastation and reconstruction costs growing hourly, the west must hold Russia responsible for humanitarian assistance, reparations, and eventually the rebuilding of Ukraine. The easiest way, tap…
Since 1983, there have only been six quarters in which the yield on the 2-year Treasury has risen by more than one percent including the current quarter! In four of the six cases, the rise barely exceeded one point. Only…
The Friday File: In 2019, 3.46 million persons in the US played pickleball. In 2020, that number increased to 4.2 million and in 2021, 4.8 million, a staggering average annual growth rate of 17.8%, or 38.7% over two years, making…
In 1965, 1984, and 1994, the Fed raised rates to cool an overheating economy and a recession didn’t ensue. Unfortunately, now consumer confidence is crumbling but more importantly, the yield curve is almost flat, inflation is high and rising, unemployment…
At its peak in 2013, 13.5 million marriages occurred in China. The number has since steadily fallen and in 2021 7.6 million weddings occurred. Since 2002 the number of persons 22-31 has fallen from 223 million to 163 million. Moreover,…
For the 14 years ending 2021, only once did a majority of large-cap stock-picking (LCSP) mutual funds outperform the S&P 500, and that was in 2009, and only 53% outperformed the S&P 500. Last year was a particularly bad year,…