Econ70

Despite probably losing the popular vote, but with his vote totals within the margin-of-error of the polls, Donald Trump will be the 45th president of the US. Expect no rate rise in December and as Brexit showed, there’s no reason…

After peaking at $4 trillion in 6/15, China’s foreign exchange holdings have steadily fallen and are now $3.12 trillion, their lowest level since 3/11. The decline would be larger absent China’s trade surplus of roughly $50 billion/month which boosts China’s…

Friday’s October employment report was good! 161,000 net new jobs and upward revisions totaling 44,000 for August and September show a continuing strengthening labor market. Monthly wage growth registered 0.4%; the second-best reading since 1/15, and Y-o-Y wage growth of…

The Friday File: Watching scary movies, think Halloween, causes the body to release an increased amount of a blood-clotting protein known as factor VIII by about 11.1 units per deciliter of plasma compared to watching an educational movie, enough to…

The nation’s second largest auto lender wrote off an annualized 1.37% of its outstanding auto loans in Q3, up from 1.01% in Q2. Why? Used car prices are falling for the first time since 2008 as the number of cars…

Clinton’s probability of winning the general election hit a post-Labor Day high of 88% on 10/17, two days before the third debate. Since then it’s steadily declined and now stands at 68%. Were the election today, Clinton would probably receive…

While demographics, regulation, and dominance of bigger businesses may be part of why the economy is growing slowly, another factor is probably the dwindling relevance of startups. Since 1977, the number of firms less than a year old has steadily…

While 16Q3 annualized GDP growth was 2.9%, a two-year high, it was primarily because of a swing in inventories, which is unlikely to be repeated, and a one-off rise in soybean exports. Conversely, consumer spending grew by 2.1%, down from…

The Friday File: Five state currently allow for recreational marijuana; 20 more states permit medical use only. This election, voters in Arizona, California, Maine, Massachusetts and Nevada, states with a combined population of almost 60 million, will vote to allow…

While September’s new home sales rate came in below expectations at 593,000/year and August’s number was revised down to 575,000 from 609,000, sales are up 13% YTD. Moreover, the home ownership rate rose from 63.1% in 16Q1 to 63.4% in…