Econ70

The Friday File: Until recently, licking was the only way to affix a stamp to an envelope. The caloric content in the adhesive on US stamps is/was 1/10 of a calorie, for UK stamps; on average 5.9 calories (different adhesives).…

The labor market is so strong the number of persons who left Social Security disability (which pays the same as working full-time at minimum wage) because they found gainful employment hit 51,302, the most since record keeping began in 2002,…

Amazon currently accounts for 49.1% of all US retail e-commerce. In distant second is eBay at 6.6%, then Apple at 3.9% and Walmart at 3.7%. No other firm exceeds 2%. Moreover, Amazon now delivers 26% of its online orders using…

A key reason 10-year Treasury bond yields have fallen from about 3.1% in Mid-November to just 2.75% today, despite a strong domestic economy, is weakness in Europe. Yields on 10-year German bonds have fallen from 0.55% in October to just…

Despite a partial government shutdown and volatile markets, 304,000 net new jobs were created in January, the second-best increase since 7/16, and the 100th straight month of employment gains, more than double the next best stretch. Y-o-Y wage growth remains…

The Friday File: With a prediction rate of 77%, or 40 for 52, a level any economist would be proud of, the Super Bowl Predictor is not to be ignored, despite having no intellectual validity and having been wrong three…

Yesterday, in a surprise, the Fed strongly suggested it won’t raise rates for a while and that more hikes might be history. Autos and especially housing will be large beneficiaries. What’s troubling is that the Fed is calling timeout with…

Since 1926, only 11 companies have ranked #1 by market capitalization; Amazon is the latest. Firms that become #1 remain in that position for an average of about 15 months and outperform the market by an average of 48 percentage…

With San Francisco Bay Area housing prices in the stratosphere, the private sector is now planning to raise $500 million for affordable housing. Assuming affordable housing costs $400,000/unit, this will create just 1,250 units! The real problem: since 2010 the…

For the week ending 1/19/19, first-time claims through state programs for unemployment fell to 199,000, the lowest level since 11/15/1969! Moreover, first-time claims have been below 300,000, a level associated with strong job growth, since 3/21/15, or 200 straight weeks,…