Econ70

With France, Italy and Japan contracting, the UK and Germany flatlining, China’s GDP taking a sizable hit due to COVID-19 (along with airlines, energy companies, tourism, luxury goods, transportation and manufacturing), it’s hard to see 20Q1 US GDP growth exceeding…

With COVID-19 fears pervasive, the yield on the 10-year Treasury note fell to 1.361% this morning, a shade below its prior low of 1.366% set in 2016, while the 30-year yield hit a new low of 1.821%. This suggests a…

The Friday File: The winner (from over 3,000 competitors) at the 144th edition of the Westminster Dog Show was Siba, a Standard Poodle from the Non-Sporting group. The other six finalists included a Whippet from Hounds, a Havanese from Toy,…

A key question in 2020 will be whether the inevitable slowdown in job growth is primarily the result of a reduction in the supply of workers or a reduction in the demand for labor due to weaker business sentiment. If…

The Chinese COVID-19 virus will hurt US GDP four ways. First, Chinese tourists will not be arriving nor will they be spending money here. Second, US manufacturers dependent on China for critical raw materials and parts may soon have to…

In 1990, when the Baby Boomers median age was 35, they owned 21% of the nation’s wealth. In 2008, when Generation Xers median age was 35, they owned 9% of the nation’s wealth. While Millennials median age will not hit…

Usually when an economy faces an extreme drop in demand, like China is experiencing now, the standard government response is some combination of easier fiscal and monetary policy. But in China’s case these policies will not stop the ongoing factory…

The Friday File: This year consumers will spend $27.4 billion, or $196.31/person on Valentine’s Day, shattering last year’s record of $20.7 billion. This year’s total includes the spending of $1.7 billion, $12.21/person, or 6% of all Valentine’s Day spending, on…

Recently, a raft of inflation measures have been reported, all totally benign. Overall GDP-wide inflation is just 1.4%; the Fed’s favorite measure of inflation, Personal Consumption Expenditure inflation is running at just 1.6%, and wage growth, no matter how measured,…

In 2019, the US trade deficit shrank for the first time since 2013, from $628 billion to $619 billion; just 1.7%. Exports fell 0.1%, imports fell 0.4%. Imports from China fell 17.6%, but it was made up by a huge…