Econ70

The Friday File: Kids are now growing up fast and are probably already asking ChatGPT to tell them a bedtime story. As for old fashioned smartphones, 8% of parents report that their children under five have their own smartphone. That…

The US economy has, to date, performed substantially better than many expected despite tariffs and many other unorthodox policies and interventions coming from DC. There are numerous reasons why. They include falling interest rates, strong corporate earnings, a belief that…

25Q3 bank earnings were a stunning $50 billion, up 20% Y-o-Y! All divisions did well, including wealth management, lending, trading and M&A/investment banking, suggesting a healthy economy. But not so fast. The drivers were big firm borrowing for M&A, and…

Earlier this week, the 2025 economics Nobel prize was awarded to American-Israeli Joel Mokyr, Frenchman Philippe Aghion, and Canadian Peter Howitt of Brown University. Mokyr won it by explaining the conditions that enable economic growth. Aghion/Howitt explained how innovation and…

While some forecast 25Q3 growth as high as 3.8%, this is undoubtedly due to booming EV sales ahead of the $7,500 tax credit that ended 9/30 and probably a sizable decline in net imports due to tariffs. The negative ADP…

The Friday File: To be more inclusive and representative of their customers, Maxwell House is temporarily changing its name, for the first time in its 133-year history, to Maxwell Apartment. Ideally, the new limited-edition containers should hold less and cost…

Widely watched monthly net job growth figures have sunk 70% since 1/1/25. This could indicate the onset of a recession if population growth and concomitantly labor force growth is strong. However, it could also be the new normal if net…

25Q3 GDP growth is projected to have grown as fast as 3.8%. Yet, simultaneously, unemployment is worsening, hours worked are largely flat, and ADP suggests September employment declined. How can this dichotomy be? Maybe there’ll be data revisions, maybe it’s…

The Case-Shiller home price index slid for the fifth straight month, and the Y-o-Y increase is just 1.7%. A year ago, it was 5%. Moreover, real home prices have been declining as inflation exceeds 2.5%. Critically, owner-occupied housing is an…

In 25Q3, companies announced 202,118 layoffs, the highest third-quarter total since 2020, when 497,215 were recorded. So far this year, firms have cut 946,426 jobs, also the most for January–September since 2020. That’s up 55% from last year’s 609,242 cuts…