Econ70

During the Housing Bust and Covid, the Fed not only bought massive quantities of Treasuries as part of Quantitative Easing but also a huge number of mortgage-backed securities. Should the next recession occur relatively soon expect the Fed to again…

September net employment was superficially decent at 119,000, but hold any applause. July and August were revised down 33,000, almost all growth was in leisure & hospitality and healthcare, and job growth is steadily slowing. Four years ago, it was…

The most popular and third most popular paid and downloaded (not albums, not streamed, not airplay) country songs in America were written and sung by AI, alone. The songs are “Walk My Way” by (AI/digital artist) Breaking Rust and “Don’t…

Walmart just reported a blowout quarter. Revenue jumped 6% to $179.5 billion, online sales jumped 27%, advertising jumped 30%, and membership 9%! Conversely, Target just reported its third straight quarter of negative sale-store sales and next will be negative too…

The share of the US population that describes themselves as middle class has slid from a very solid 85% a decade ago to just 54% today. Relatedly, the percentage that now consider themselves lower or working class is over 40%.…

Jay Powell’s term as a Fed governor began in 5/12 and ends in 1/28. Until becoming Chairman in 2/18, he was one of seven Fed governors. His current second term as Chairman ends in 5/26, but 20 months will remain…

Since peaking at almost $124,000 on 10/6/25, Bitcoin now finds itself slightly below $92,000, exactly where it was a year ago, exactly double where it was in early 2/21 and clearly in the grip of yet another bear market. I…

The Friday File: According to average menu prices among restaurants on DoorDash, California is home to the most expensive places to order a cheeseburger, fries, and soda combo at $25.20 in Chula Vista, and $22.94 in Anaheim. For value, go…

Dating back to the early 1960s and the last ten bull markets, bulls are propelled 40% by rising P/E multiples and 60% from earnings growth. Bear markets, 80% due to declining multiples and 20% from declining earnings, animal spirits are…

There’s now talk of 50-year mortgages. Bad idea. First, with the median age of first-time buyers 40, borrowers would likely never pay off their mortgage. Second, the difference between a 10-year mortgage and a 30-year mortgage is 65bps, the gap…