Econ70

Presidential Parturition

12/18/2020

The state that has had the most US presidents born in it is Virginia with eight. Right behind is Ohio with seven, New York has five and Massachusetts has four. No state has three presidents; five states have two, including…

Congressional Compromise

12/17/2020

Congress is finally closing in on a $900 billion coronavirus relief package; not a moment too soon! Retail sales, while up slightly Y-o-Y, fell 1.1% from their October level, their second straight M-o-M decline. And, as of today, first-time claims…

Tempering Trade

12/16/2020

While the amount of global trade depends heavily on tariffs, it also depends mightily on the cost of transporting goods, and specifically that those costs fall faster than domestic production costs do. If both decline by, say 10%, trade levels…

Missing Manufacturing

12/15/2020

The most cited manufacturing index, the ISM Manufacturing index, is at 57.5, just slightly below its two year high of 59.3, and consumer spending on goods is 8.4% above its pre-pandemic high. Yet industrial production is 4.9% below its 2/20…

Swing Success

12/14/2020

In 2016, Trump/Pence received 62.98 million votes, 46.1% of the total; Clinton/Kaine received 65.85 million, 48.2% of all votes, a 2.1 percentage point differential. This time, Biden/Harris received 81.23 million, Trump/Pence received 74.22 million, a 4.5-point difference. Had Trump/Pence gained…

Pension Payments

12/11/2020

The Friday File: The last Civil War veteran to die was Albert Woolson (1850-1956). The last Civil War bride to die was Maude Hopkins (1914-2008), who at 19 married William Cantrell, age 86. The last person to receive a Civil…

Facing Facebook

12/10/2020

Yesterday the Federal Trade Commission and 46 states filed two separate lawsuits against Facebook, and earlier this year the Department of Justice sued Google. It’s about time! While these firms seemingly offer free services, they are anything but. By chocking…

Productivity Predicament

12/09/2020

Through 20Q3, GDP is down 3.5% from 19Q4. Assuming GDP grows at a seasonally-adjusted annualized rate of 3.3% in 20Q4, which shouldn’t be tough, GDP will be just 2.7% shy of where it was pre-pandemic. But, by 12/31/20, total nonfarm…

Rental Returns

12/08/2020

Through November, 93.6% of renters living in large, professionally managed market-rate apartment buildings paid their November rent. Last year, the percentage was 95.2%, a 1.6 percentage point decline. In October, the decline was 1.8 percentage points, in September 0.9 points,…

Weak Work

12/07/2020

While November net employment grew for the seventh straight month, it’s been declining for six straight, and from a peak of 3.6 million. Employment grew by 245,000, a number that normally would be lovely. While the unemployment rate fell, it…

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