Econ70

Eurozone GDP fell 0.7% in 20Q4. While less severe than the contraction in spring 2020, this means eurozone GDP is 5.1% smaller than a year ago, compared to US GDP which is down just 2.5% compared to 19Q4. Worse, while…

Comparing total state employment in 12/19 to 12/20, the best performers are Utah and Alaska, each with a gain of 1%. Idaho and Kansas follow with no change. Arkansas, Indiana, Montana, South Dakota, Tennessee, and Wyoming have each seen employment…

The Friday File: Airplanes are not only expensive to buy, each B-2 costs $2 billion, they are also expensive to operate. The same B-2 costs $63 million/year to operate, the B-52 Stratofortress costs $25 million/year, and the B-1B Lancer, $24…

While this may be nothing but a stupid bubble, created by new technology such as Reddit/chat boards and Robinhood and the unintended consequences of low interest rates and massive liquidity due to overreliance on monetary policy, it could be the…

Existing-home sales jumped in December to a seasonally adjusted annual rate (SAAR) of 6.76 million, the highest level since 2006. Usually, sales weaken in December but due to Covid-19 seasonality has disappeared. Had December’s sales of 540,000 occurred in July,…

The Fed, the ECB, and the BoJ have collectively increased balance sheets by $8 trillion since Sars-Cov-2’s debut. Last recession, it took the same central banks eight years to accumulate that much. With such large reserves, higher rates due to…

In December, housing starts were at a seasonally adjusted annualized rate of 1.67 million, their best since 9/06 and up 5.2% Y-o-Y. Single-family activity was up 28% Y-o-Y, multifamily starts fell 39%, both percentages being strongly Covid-19 influenced. Total starts…

The Friday File: This past Wednesday, not only did President and Dr. Jill Biden move into the White House, but so did Major, a three-year old rescue German Shepard, and Champ, a 13-year old German Shepard, the First Canines. There…

Higher taxes are probably in the offing but not right now. Raising taxes while crawling out from Sars-Cov-2 is unwise. And, with razor thin majorities in both chambers and Republicans against higher taxes, the entire Democratic caucus in each chamber…

FDR was the first president to be sworn in on January 20th. It had been March 20th until then, but the 20th amendment changed that. Harry Truman’s second inauguration (pollsters expected Dewey’s first) was the first to be televised, Carter…