Month: March 2025

Mid-March figures from the University of Michigan Survey of Consumer Sentiment were dismal. Overall consumer sentiment sank 11%, and after big declines in January and February, is at its lowest level since 2022. Except for 2022 and Covid, it’s at…

The Friday File: Soon the NCAA wrestling championship tournament will occur. The men’s program with the most team championships is Oklahoma State with 34, Iowa follows with 24, including nine straight from 1978-1986, then Penn State with 12, including 11…

The trade deficit (the current account) plus net capital inflows (the capital account) must equal zero. A slow-growing nation like Japan runs a trade surplus of $200 billion/year, but it invests $200 billion/year abroad. Conversely, the fast-growing US runs a…

February CPI inflation was a light 0.2% M-o-M and 2.8% Y-o-Y, core was also 0.2% M-o-M but 3.1% Y-o-Y. All readings were better than last month. Fuel price declines helped, as did slowing rents. And Powell’s “super-core” index, which is…

If de-risking from China matters, then Mexico is a strategic, low-wage alternative, and thus imposing tariffs on Mexico makes no sense. Relatedly, why impose tariffs on industries in which we don’t compete, such as potash, or low margin car parts?…

February net job growth was a decent 151,000, January was revised down by 18,000 to 125,000, and the unemployment rate rose to 4.1% despite the labor force participation rate sliding from 62.6% to 62.4%. Mild continued weakening is visible. Critically,…

The Friday File: Of the nation’s 50 busiest airports, the one with the costliest average ticket in 24Q3 is Reagan Washington National at $473, followed by Orange County John Wayne at $428, then San Francisco at $425. The cheapest is…

Twenty percent of US oil consumption is reliant on Canadian imports, because despite the fracking revolution, pipeline capacity constraints mean the Midwest/Northeast depend heavily on Canadian crude and natural gas. Furthermore, Gulf Coast/Midwest refineries are designed only to process heavy…

As part of reconciliation, Republicans must find $880 billion in Medicaid savings through 2035. Talk about tough. Currently Medicaid covers 72 million people. Fraud is estimated to be maximally $31 billion/year. Work requirements might save $100 billion over a decade.…

On Sunday, Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick proposed separating government spending, 23.3% of GDP including Social Security, Medicare, defense, and more from GDP reports. This proposition is best avoided. Once data quality is compromised, faith in other data will be impugned,…