Month: May 2018

Seasonally adjusted annualized April housing starts were 1.287 million. While that is up 10.5% Y-o-Y, and 8% YTD, housing growth is painfully weak, and all because of single-family activity. Multifamily has fully recovered and will henceforth move sideways. However, single-family…

The recent tax cuts and spending increases will push up business and household spending, which will necessarily boost imports, which in turn will hurt our trade deficit. At the same time, these policies will also widen the budget deficit. And,…

Several developing markets including Argentina, Indonesia, and Turkey, are getting whacked! While each is unique, these developing nations generally suffer from high externally denominated public and corporate indebtedness, large deficits, and high inflation. What lit the fuse is the greenback’s…

The Friday File: 86% of Americans will celebrate Mother’s Day, spending an average of $180, taking total spending to $23.1 billion, just slightly below last year’s record-level and equal to the GDP of Iceland. Individuals 35-44 will be the biggest…

The flattening yield curve, or the declining differential between long-term and short-term rates, is giving many heartburn. Since 1970, every time it’s inverted (and short rates have exceeded long rates), a recession has followed. Are we near a recession? Very…

After declining 0.25% in December, 0.68% in January, and 0.23% in February, inflation-adjusted retail sales jumped 0.62% in March and are now, solidly back at trend growth. Moreover, because those months are volatile, looking at Y-o-Y growth is preferable. Y-o-Y…

April’s employment numbers were good. The unemployment rate fell to 3.9%, its best rate since 12/00, and the broadest measure of unemployment fell to 7.8%, best since 12/01. Yet wage growth was unchanged from earlier months, easing fears of inflation.…

The US has set a mid-May deadline to complete NAFTA negotiations with Mexico and Canada. On 5/22, $50 billion in tariffs can be imposed on Chinese imports, and on 6/1, steel and aluminum tariffs will be levied on the EU…

The Friday File: American Pharoah, the 2015 winner of the 141st running of the Kentucky Derby, the first Triple Crown winner since Affirmed in 1978, and one of only 12 such winners, is popular. The now six-year-old stallion has impregnated…

While the Fed didn’t raise rates in the meeting that concluded yesterday, the big news is the Fed won’t overreact (which means raise rates much faster) if inflation modestly exceeds 2%. That is, the Fed remains on track to raise…