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The Friday File: In an effort to lick billions in losses, the USPS plans to halt Saturday delivery of letters in 8/13. Mail volume has plummeted from 210 billion pieces in 2008 to just 160 billion in 2012, a decline…
Nominating Senator Hagel for Secretary of Defense raises serious doubts among allies and enemies that President Obama will use all means necessary to prevent Iran from acquiring nuclear weapons. Therefore, the chances of a negotiated settlement fall (despite biting sanctions),…
Despite the euro zone being in recession, the euro is dramatically rising against the US dollar, from $1.20/euro in July to $1.36 today. Why, because massive European Central Bank (ECB) action prevented Spain from collapsing, and the ECB is fast…
While per capita debt has ballooned from $1,640 in 1/66 to $53,000 today, it’s the growth rate that matters. Between 1/66 and 10/77 (11.75 years) the debt doubled. It doubled again by 7/84 (6.75 years), again by 10/90 (6.25 years),…
Despite GDP contracting at an annual rate of 0.1% in Q4 2012, the worst quarter since the end of the recession in 6/09, another recession isn’t in the cards. That’s because the data also showed relatively strong spending by consumers…
Given Republican unwillingness to raise taxes and Democratic insistence on it, the delayed automatic $110 billion sequester will kick-in on March 1st. This will reduce GDP growth by 0.75% and guarantees a weak first half of ’13 as the economy…
As the economy strengthens, the Fed must begin to end its exceptionally expansionary monetary policy of the last half decade. It will begin by halting its purchases of $85 billion/month in Treasuries and mortgage-backed-securities. Second, it will stop reinvesting interest…
If a continuing resolution is not passed by the Congress by 3/27/13, the Obama administration will be forced to shut down activities funded by appropriations and all non-essential government operations. But this isn’t that ominous. Only 40% of federal spending…