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The economic data released today were terrific. Two house price indices showed decelerating price appreciation which helps affordability. Consumer confidence is now as high as it was in 10/07 just before the Great Recession and manufacturing activity from MD through…
From 1/1/14 through 7/31/14 new home sales totaled 266,000, down from 268,000 during the same period in 2013. Similarly, single-family starts are up just 3.2% year-to-date and single-family permits are up just 0.8% year-to-date. Single-family activity is, in part, so…
The Friday File: The last time the Republicans won the White House without the name Nixon or Bush appearing on the ticket was in 1928, 86 years ago, when Herbert Hoover won with Charles Curtis as his Vice President. For…
Housing sales peak in spring/summer, with price gains doing so as well. However, distressed sales, of which there have been many, occur relatively evenly all year. Therefore, distressed sales are highest as a percentage of all sales in fall/winter, thereby…
Since 1947 real GDP growth has averaged 3.26%/year. Since 1/1/10 it’s averaged 2.3%. Economists think that some of the decline will persist for a while because of both slower productivity gains and population growth. Therefore, the neutral Federal Funds rate,…
While 10-year U.S. Treasuries yield just 2.4%, yields on 10-year German government bonds are a ridiculously low 1%, and 10-year Japanese government bonds yield a microscopic 0.507%. Yields this low tell us markets think GDP growth will remain anemic in…
While the Bank of Japan is engaging in expansionary monetary policy and the ECB probably will in early 2015, the Bank of England will likely raise rates by 4/15 with the Fed following soon thereafter. While this monetary policy divergence…
The Friday File: The #1 wine producing nation in 2013 was Italy with 1.2 billion gallons (BG). Spain followed with 1.13 BG then France with 1.1 BG. Collectively, these three nations produced 46.8% of all wine. Rounding out the top…
In 2012, in the midst of a terrible drought and skyrocketing demand from China, front-month wheat futures went as high as $9.35/bushel and soybeans for as much as $17.94/bushel. Today, a combination of flat demand and perfect weather have farmers…
On one hand, small business optimism is at a post-recession high, the budget deficit at 2.8% of GDP is at its lowest level since 2008, and job openings are back at pre-recession levels. On the other hand, retail sales disappointed…