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Despite just 138,000 net new May jobs and downward revisions to March and April, US job growth is solid and well above the level needed to absorb new job entrants. To wit, the unemployment rate fell to 4.3%, the lowest…

The Friday File: It’s known that sunset is much earlier on the eastern edge of a time zone than the western edge. Separately, research shows people sleep longer when the sun sets earlier and more sleep is thought to improve…

In 2000, when e-commerce was 1% of retail sales, department store employment was 1.8 million. Today, e-commerce sales are 8.5% of retail sales and department store employment is 1.3 million. During the same period, employment at non-store retailers rose from…

Tax cuts, let alone tax reform, are becoming increasingly impossible. The White House and Senate nixed a border tax adjustment, and that will reduce revenues by $1 trillion over a decade. Moreover, the healthcare reform bill that passed the House…

The US economy expanded at just 1.2% in 17Q1, better than an earlier estimate of a dismal 0.7%, on the back of better consumer and business spending and slightly less contractionary government spending than initially thought. Given the lousy data…

The Friday File: The President with the shortest term was William Henry Harrison; 31 days. James Garfield follows, his term lasted just 199 days. By comparison, Zachary Taylor, with a term of 491 days, was a long-term tenant at the…

While April existing home sales were down 2.3% M-o-M and up just 1.6% compared to 4/16, it’s due to limited inventory. While inventories rose 7.2% M-o-M, April marks the 23rd consecutive month of Y-o-Y inventory declines! As for new home…

Household financial health is modestly improving. In 2016, 70% of Americans said they were living comfortably/doing OK, up from 69% in 2015 and 62% in 2013. Similarly, the percentage with no retirement savings has declined from 31% in 2014 to…

After quickly rising by a strong 5% on a trade-weighted basis after Trump’s election win, the dollar has fully retreated and is back where it was before the election. 10-year bond yields have given up almost half of their gains…

Given that the Fed has begun to raise short-term rates, it’s necessary that the Fed also raise long-term rates. And doing that requires shrinking its balance sheet because the trillions there are almost all long-dated securities. By holding those securities,…