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The Friday File: Last year, the Oscars were viewed by 26.5 million persons, the lowest viewership total this century. Since 2001, viewership peaked in 2014 at 43.7 million. That year capped a 14-year run where viewership averaged 39.5 million. It’s…

If 2019 real GDP growth is 2%, inflation holds at 2%, and unemployment falls no lower than 3.7% such that Y-o-Y wage growth stays around 3%, the Fed keeps rates unchanged. If growth rises above 2.3%, and unemployment falls below…

A marginal tax rate of 70% on income over $10 million would raise about $380 billion between 2020 and 2029. But if changes in taxpayer behavior are accounted for, revenue falls to about $350 billion. Assuming high-income owners of pass-through…

Last year, Airbus booked 747 new orders and delivered 800, the first time since 2009 that deliveries exceeded new orders. Boeing booked 893 net new orders and made 806 deliveries. Both firms’ total deliveries of 1,606 were a new high.…

In 2018, a volatile year for markets, just 38% of actively managed US stock funds outperformed their passively managed (indexed) counterparts, down from 46% in 2017, a placid year. Over the past decade, just 26% of actively managed funds beat…

The Friday File: In 2000, the average Billboard Top 100 song was 250 seconds, it’s since steadily declined and is now 210 seconds. Why? Each time a song is streamed the artist receives roughly half-a-cent/song, not per minute! Moreover, since…

Valentine’s Day spending is expected to reach $20.6 billion, up from $19.6 billion last year and exceeding the prior record high of $19.7 in 2016. This year, 51% of Americans plan to celebrate, down from 55% last year and well…

Economic growth in the European Union has consistently exceeded growth in the eurozone since the euro debuted on 1/1/99. The two most important reasons are a total loss of control over monetary policy and, maybe worse, since 2012 eurozone governments…

On 12/31/18 there were a record 7.335 million job openings, and 6.294 million unemployed persons, or 1.17 jobs/unemployed person, the ninth consecutive month openings have exceeded the unemployed. Relatedly, the number of job openings has exceeded the number hired since…

In an amazing turn of events, the US petroleum trade deficit in 11/18, the latest month for which we have data, was just $625 million. As recently as mid-2008 it was a record-high $40 billion/month. What happened? Lower oil prices,…