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Last week, a key manufacturing sentiment index fell to its lowest level in over two years but remains solidly in expansion territory. Yesterday, an equally important services sentiment index rose to one of its highest levels of this almost 10-year…

A record 7 million Americans are 90 days or more behind on their car loans. While more than 5.8 million were delinquent during the Great Recession, as a percentage of auto loans outstanding, today’s rate is 4.5% vs 5.3% at…

US GDP grew at a strong 2.6% annualized rate in 18Q4, resulting in CY2018 GDP growth of 2.9%, and growth of even 3.1% if comparing 18Q4 from a year earlier. However, no matter how measured, growth is slowing. It was…

The Friday File: This week, the Periodic Table celebrates its 150th birthday. In 1789, Antoine-Laurent de Lavoisier (who was beheaded in 1794) first published a list of 33 elements thought to be incapable of being broken down. However, it was…

In 2017, the latest year for which data are available, debit and credit cards accounted for 62.3% of all payments by dollars spent, up from 53% in 2012. Next was cash at 15.5%, down from 19%. Electronic payments that completely…

December housing starts came in at a seasonally-adjusted annual rate of 1.08 million; the worst level since 9/16! Worse, starts for October and November were revised down. However, CY2018 starts were up 3.6% compared to CY2017. Moreover, rates have fallen…

In 2018, there were 3,853,472 births, the lowest level in 30 years, and the fertility rate was 60.2/1,000 women aged 15-44, a record low. For those 15-19, there were 18.8 births/1,000, another record low. As for abortions, in 2013, 958,700…

The Green New Deal’s plan to upgrade all buildings to “maximum energy efficiency” will cost about $285/ton of CO2 removed. To achieve 100% renewable energy in 10-years is minimally expected to cost $85/ton of CO2 withdrawn. For comparison purposes, power…

The Friday File: Last year, the Oscars were viewed by 26.5 million persons, the lowest viewership total this century. Since 2001, viewership peaked in 2014 at 43.7 million. That year capped a 14-year run where viewership averaged 39.5 million. It’s…

If 2019 real GDP growth is 2%, inflation holds at 2%, and unemployment falls no lower than 3.7% such that Y-o-Y wage growth stays around 3%, the Fed keeps rates unchanged. If growth rises above 2.3%, and unemployment falls below…