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While politicians can argue about who has the authority to reopen the economy, in the end it is consumers and businesses that will make that decision based on safety and security. Early evidence from China (which is at best an…

Over the last four weeks, 22 million jobs have been lost, 13.3% of the labor force. Add the initial unemployment rate of 3.5%, and the unemployment rate is 16.8%. By the end of the month, it will be meaningfully higher.…

Plunging Petrol In a move without precedent, the price of a barrel of West Texas Intermediate crude for May delivery closed at -$37.63; there is simply no place to put it. Producers are literally paying buyers to take the oil!…

The Friday File: On 11/10/19, three drivers in an innocent looking 2015 Mercedes Benz E63 AMG loaded with electronics sped from NYC to Redondo Beach, CA, the Cannonball run, in a record 27 hours and 25 minutes. But on 4/4/20…

First-time mortgage applications have fallen for five straight weeks and Y-o-Y activity is now down a painful 35%. Add to that a 42-point fall in the NAHB Housing Market index for March to 30, the lowest level since 6/12 and…

Continued Contraction In 20Q1, GDP probably declined at an annual rate of 5%. In 20Q2, the decline will be an ugly 24%. In 20Q3 GDP grows by 2% and in 20Q4 by a strong 7%. In total, GDP will contract…

In Fed Chairman Jay Powell’s press conference last week he put down several critical markers. First, rates are low and will stay low for a long time! Second, the Fed will make purchases as large as necessary to keep markets…

In the first half of FY20, the deficit was $746.6 billion, up 7.6% compared to the same period in FY19; the 8th largest deficit/GDP ratio since 1947. Tax receipts were up 6% to $1.604 trillion, outlays rose by 7% to…

The Friday File: The biggest cruise ship, the Symphony of the Seas (2018) with gross tonnage of 228,081 and a maximum capacity of 6,680 people. The next largest, the Harmony of the Seas (2016) with gross tonnage of 226,963 and…

While initial jobless claims for the week ending 4/3/20 hit a stunning 6.6 million persons, and raises to a colossal 16.8 million the number who have lost jobs in the last three weeks, the Fed is offering new lending facilities…