70 Words
While November net employment grew for the seventh straight month, it’s been declining for six straight, and from a peak of 3.6 million. Employment grew by 245,000, a number that normally would be lovely. While the unemployment rate fell, it…
The Friday File: For the first time since 1943, US butter production will top two billion pounds. From 1910-1940 per-capita butter consumption was 18 lbs/year. It then steadily fell to a low of 4.5 lbs/year between 1975-2005. Butter sales collapsed…
In the weeks since the first vaccine announcement, the stock market has rallied, but not Treasuries; the 30-year is lower today than a month ago. Why? With limited fiscal stimulus, if any, coming from D.C., the need is for more…
Personal spending rose 0.5% in October, but ignoring inflation, remains down 1.6% from where it was in February 2020, pre-Covid-19. More interestingly, spending on durables like cars, laptops, and sporting goods is up 15.2% from February, while spending on nondurables,…
The percentage of employees going to work troughed out on 4/8/20 at 14.9%, consisting of maintenance and essential workers. It then steadily rose and peaked in mid-to-late October at 27.4%. Since then, the rate has never exceeded 27.1%. The return…
World trade grew rapidly in the late 19th and early 20th centuries, and by 1913 trade was 13% of global GDP. It then collapsed to 5% by 1930, partly due to the rise of protectionism during the interwar years and…
The Friday File: Between 3/1/20 and 8/8/20, households hunkered down and stockpiled food. Among canned vegetables and beans, mixed vegetable sales increased the most, 62.4% Y-o-Y to $94 million. Next, kidney beans with growth of 60.2% to $95 million, followed…
If you are soon to gain a large inheritance, you will become more careful and less likely to be self-destructive. The arrival of a vaccine alters our behavior very similarly. When the vaccine is a distant hope, benefits are discounted,…
Assuming 4 million full-time working parents with school age children under the age of 14 who are unable find child-care and must quit their job, the resulting reduction in September-December GDP is probably 0.5%, and over an entire school year…
After being the first woman to lead the Fed since its inception in 1913, Janet Yellen is poised to now become the first female Treasury Secretary in its 231-year history. She will push for stricter bank regulations, fiscal help for…