Econ70
I frequently get asked to suggest books to read to better understand the stock market. Here are three of my favorites, in alphabetical order. Extraordinary Popular Delusions and the Madness of Crowds by Charles Mackay, Manias, Panics, and Crashes by…
The Friday File: On 12/11/25 the mint sold 696 pennies in 232 three-cent sets. The sets sold for $16.76 million, or 1,676,000,000 pennies. The 232nd set, containing the last three pennies minted, sold for $800,000. The buyer also received the…
The Evergreen File: Last year, Christmas tree prices peaked on 11/28 at $142, and then steadily slid to under $58 on Christmas eve. This suggests buying late is the best strategy. But, if you calculate the cost of each “house…
25Q3 GDP expanded at 4.3% annualized vs. 25Q2’s 3.8%; the best quarter since 23Q3. But it’s three-month-old data. Since Trump’s return, GDP growth has averaged 2.5%, slightly ahead of the 2004 pace of 2.4% during the Biden administration. 25Q4 will…
While job growth data is distorted, the trend is what matters, and it’s lousy. In 11/21 Y-o-Y net job growth was 4.5%, a year later it was strong at 3.4%, but by 11/23 was a normal 1.6%. Regrettably, it continued…
The Friday File: Last Saturday in Washington, DC, 1,435 couples simultaneously smooched for five seconds under the “National Mistletoe,” a 30-foot-high orb of greenery, flowers, and a jingle bell. In the process they set the Guinness World Record for most…
November CPI came in at 2.7% Y-o-Y, down from 3% in September (there was no October report), and core CPI was 2.6%, the lowest annual rate since 4/21. Great news but wait. The shutdown prevented data collection efforts from commencing…
Following the recent data dump, it’s clear the labor market continues to cool. The unemployment rate is at 4.6% and is rising almost fast enough to heighten recession concerns. Moreover, manufacturing employment is declining, annual wage growth softens, and November’s…
Construction job openings fell from 249,000 on 9/30/25 to 213,000 on 10/31/25, pushing the job openings rate from 2.9% to 2.5%, the lowest October level since 2015. Similarly, hires slipped from 323,000 on 9/30/25 to 313,000 on 10/31/25, pushing the…
Since the Fed’s first rate cut of this cutting cycle on 9/18/24, the 10-year Treasury has risen 50bps. Historically, after 175bps of cuts the 10-year is 30bps lower. What we’re witnessing is unusual. It’s either investor fears about fiscal profligacy…