Econ70
Makers and sellers of oversized bows that decorate new cars are in a funk, with orders down compared to Christmas 2021. It’s because sales are soft, inventories are down, and people are increasingly purchasing cars they previously leased as new…
Despite rising rates and recession fears, because of the top-to-bottom redesign of the home mortgage market resulting from Dodd-Frank and other laws and regulations, which have culminated in substantially tighter underwriting standards, it would take a 40% to 45% decline…
While releases from the Strategic Petroleum Reserve totaling 180 million barrels will soon end, the benefits may not. The releases, intended to lower pump prices and which came under political pressure, were sold for an average price of $96.25/bbl. With…
Looking at all World Cup winners from 1962 through 2018, economic analysis suggests winning the WC boosts domestic GDP by at least 0.25% in the two subsequent quarters primarily due to export growth. For example, 1.12 billion people watched the…
The Friday File: The holiday of Hanukkah begins this Sunday night. This is the 2,187th time the holiday celebration commemorating the liberation of Jerusalem and the rededication of Second Temple will be celebrated. Over the course of the eight-day holiday,…
As recently as 2/22, M-o-M house prices appreciated 1.9%, and in 3/22 they rose 2.1%, the two strongest months ever. Then appreciation rates slowed. In April appreciation was 1.7%, in May 1.3%, and in June just 0.2%. Then prices started…
As expected, the Fed bumped rates 50bps earlier today to 4.375%. Markets were hoping the Fed might halt increases going forward due to declining inflation, and because in September Fed members anticipated raising the fed-funds rate to slightly above where…
The November CPI rose 7.1% Y-o-Y, down from 7.7% last month, and a 6/22 peak of 9.1%. Better yet, shelter, which while up 0.65% in November, is down from 0.75% in September and October, is at a four-month low, and…
Of late, long-term (10-year) interest rates have fallen quite dramatically, by about two-thirds of a percentage point. However, short-term (2-year) rates have fallen by only half as much. Thus, the yield curve inversion, an accurate recession indicator, has gotten worse.…
The Friday File: While prices ending in $0.99, like $4.99 of $399.99, known as charm pricing, look good, they are on average 18% more expensive than when identical items have different prices. Stores do it because we think it signals…