Econ70

Trivial Taxes

08/09/2016

In 2014, the inheritance tax affected 5,200 estates, roughly 0.2% of those who died. And, the inheritance tax generated $19.3 billion or 0.6% of all federal revenue, down from 1% in 1990 due to increases in the size of the…

Excellent Employment

08/08/2016

With 255,000 net new jobs created in July and upward revisions to prior months, Friday’s job report was stellar. While the unemployment rate held steady, it’s because a huge number of persons entered the labor force. Moreover, the work week…

Gold Greatness

08/05/2016

The Friday File: During the upcoming 31st Olympiad, the US team should win more gold medals (40) and more silver medals (60) than any other. China will come in a close second, with 35 gold and 45 silver. Like in…

Segregated Services

08/04/2016

Inflation, as measured by the personal consumption expenditure index, the Fed’s preferred measure, was just 0.9% for the year ending 6/16, and core inflation (which removes food and energy) was 1.6%, both below the Fed’s 2% target. However, goods inflation…

Crash Concern

08/03/2016

When investors were recently asked what the likelihood was of a crash similar to Black Tuesday (October 29, 1929) or Black Monday (October 19, 1987) occurring during the next six months, the median response was 10%. The actual probability, 1.7%.…

Rising Rentership

08/02/2016

Last week, we learned that the seasonally-adjusted homeownership rate declined to 63.1%, the lowest level since 1965, yes 1965, and a steep fall from the peak of 69.4% in 04Q2. Since the start of the recession in 01/08, there’s been…

Gnarly Growth

08/01/2016

The US economy sputtered in Q2, growing at a rate of just 1.2%/year! Consumer spending rose a strong 4.2%, exports jumped 1.4%, and real final private sales increased 4.8%. But, government spending was down 0.9%, residential fixed investment declined 6.1%,…

Tall Tales

07/29/2016

The Friday File: Dutch men, at almost 6’ and Latvian women at 5’7” are the tallest in the world. Men from Timor-Leste, at 5’3” and Guatemalan women, at 4’11” are the shortest. American men at 5’10” are 37th tallest, while…

Indecisive Interest

07/28/2016

Yesterday’s Fed statement suggesting that “near-term risks to the economic outlook have diminished” that “job gains were strong” and “household spending has been growing strongly” indicates a Fed that’s again taking steps to prepare the market for a rate rise,…

Downer Durables

07/27/2016

After peaking at $70.7 billion in 9/14, new orders for non-defense capital goods excluding aircraft (core capital goods), have been steadily falling and were just $62.3 billion in 6/16. They are down 3.7% Y-o-Y; 3.8% YTD. New orders for all…

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