Econ70
After quickly rising by a strong 5% on a trade-weighted basis after Trump’s election win, the dollar has fully retreated and is back where it was before the election. 10-year bond yields have given up almost half of their gains…
Given that the Fed has begun to raise short-term rates, it’s necessary that the Fed also raise long-term rates. And doing that requires shrinking its balance sheet because the trillions there are almost all long-dated securities. By holding those securities,…
The Friday File: Last year, the top 100 grossing musical acts generated $4.45 billion in concert tour revenue. Adele placed 5th with $168 million. Guns N’ Roses was fourth with $188 million, Coldplay was third with $241 million, and Beyonce…
In 17Q1, household debt rose by $149 billion and now totals $12.73 trillion, surpassing the previous peak of $12.68 trillion set in 08Q3, 8.5 years ago. Mortgage debt currently equals $8.63 trillion or 68% of all household debt. In 08Q3,…
On average, each $1 billion of construction spending results in about 6,000 full-time one-year equivalent construction jobs and roughly another 6,000 non-construction jobs. Naturally, different types of construction create different employment numbers. That said, assuming the wall costs $21 billion,…
April housing starts were OK. Single family starts were up 8.8% Y-o-Y, 7.4% YTD, and, somewhat surprisingly, have been flat since 10/16. Importantly, trends have emerged. Comparing 15Q1 – peak house size – to today, median and average house sizes…
Consumer spending is fine! Retail sales, that is sales at stores, restaurants, and importantly online retailers, rose 0.4% in April, the best gain in three months and sales in March were meaningfully upwardly revised. However, April non-store retail sales (which…
The Friday File: If your favorite sports team isn’t winning, don’t blame the players, coaches, and GMs, blame politicians! Turns out that the higher the income tax rate, the lower the team winning percentage. This effect is most powerful for…
While you may sneer at each mention of the 35-hour French workweek, it’s not as extreme as it sounds. It’s simply the legal maximum number of hours that must be worked before overtime is paid. Moreover, the average workweek in…
Despite a sizeable cutback in oil production by OPEC and several non-OPEC nations and a subsequent rise in price, oil prices are testing 5-month lows. The initial rise in price caused US fracking activity to increase, negating the OPEC cutback.…