Econ70

The Friday File: While Lebron James and Tom Brady are outstanding, Mike Trout may be the finest US athlete. YTD, Trout’s Wins Above Replacement, or victories attributable to him above the number expected from the best available replacement-level player, is…

In 18Q1, US household wealth increased 1% to a record $100.8 trillion, or 6.83 times disposable income, close to the peak of 6.85 set in 17Q4, and well above the pre-recession 2006 peak of 6.50. These steady increases in household…

While May single-family starts are up 18.3% Y-o-Y and multifamily are up 25.1% Y-o-Y, those numbers are deceiving as 5/17 was, by far, the worst month for starts last year! YTD, a better way to compare volatile month-to-month data like…

Imposing tariffs on $50 billion in Chinese goods with one-for-one Chinese retaliation will shave one-fifteenth of a point off GDP and cost 100,000 jobs by 2019; manageable. Imposing tariffs on $450 billion, as Trump’s suggesting, would have substantive negative economic…

With crude oil prices near 3-year highs, US shale producers are drilling more and turning profits. But high oil prices are hurting natural gas prices. While global demand for natural gas is projected to rise for many reasons, supply should…

The Friday File: While 32 teams are competing in the 21st World Cup in Russia, only a handful have a winning chance. Brazil and Germany are favorites with 5:1 odds each. France and Spain follow at about 6:1, then Argentina…

Many retail stores are shrinking their footprint or declaring bankruptcy. In part, it’s because online sales have been rising by an astonishing 17%/year for two decades and are now 9% of all retail sales. Moreover, there are 24 square feet…

That the Fed raised short-term rates by one quarter percentage point earlier today wasn’t surprising. What was somewhat unexpected was that the Fed now expects to raise rates four times this year, not three. But what set the markets into…

While the CPI rose by a solid 0.2% in May, it rose by a strong 2.8% over the past 12 months, the fastest rise in Y-o-Y CPI inflation since 2/12 when it rose 2.9%. Core CPI, which excludes volatile food…

Spending on Social Security recipients will exceed revenues this year for the first time since 1982. Worse, the SS trust fund, which holds $3 trillion, will be empty by 2034, after which recipients will receive 75% of scheduled benefits absent…