Month: May 2025

In 2022, federal workers with at most a HS diploma (13% of the federal workforce) earned 17% more, on average, than their private-sector counterparts. Workers whose education culminated in a bachelor’s degree (33% of the federal workforce) earned 10% less…

The good news, the S&P 500, which was briefly in bear market territory on “Liberation Day” has made up all losses. Unfortunately, the bond market hasn’t rallied. The 10-year Treasury is 4.5%, where it was a month ago. Is it…

April CPI/core CPI both came in soft at 0.2%. The three-month annualized trend in CPI is 1.6%, core is 2.1%. Y-o-Y CPI slid to 2.3% from 2.4% in March while Y-o-Y core CPI was flat at 2.8%. Moreover, Powell’s favorite…

The unexpectedly large reduction in Chinese tariffs is good. This reduces the overall average import tariff to 12% from 25%. But tariffs on imported Chinese goods remain 30%, the reprieve is only for 90 days, and China hasn’t made any…

The Friday File: Cardinal Robert Prevost is the 267th Pope. He is now Leo XIV. John’s the most common papal name; it’s been used 23 times, followed by Benedict/Gregory at 16, Clement and now Leo at 14. To undoubtedly avoid…

The spring season, when builders sell 40% of their product, is a dud and that’s before tariffs. The number of completed but unsold homes is at their highest since 2009, and months of supply are at 8.3, a level usually…

There are three types of recessions, structural (the Housing Bust/Global financial crisis), cyclical (dot.com bust), and event driven (Covid, and importantly tariffs. Since WWII, the steepest S&P 500 declines (50%) and longest bear markets (23 months) are associated with structural…

Last Friday the S&P 500 rose for the ninth day in a row, the first time this has occurred since late 2004, over 20 years ago. During this same period, the S&P 500 has risen exactly eight times in a…

April net job growth came in solid at 177,000. Critically, monthly job numbers are for the pay period including the 12th and thus are for early April, at most two weeks after “Liberation Day.” They tell us nothing — good…

The Friday File: During the first 100 days of Trump 2.0, the president signed 142 executive orders. In distant second, FDR with merely 99. In third, Joe Biden with 42, then Trump 1.0 with 33 EOs. LBJ is fifth at…