Archive for May 2012
Structural or Cyclical?
Some argue that the unemployed have skills that are simply not needed. Thus, deficit spending will not get us out of this “structural” recession. But, if this were a “structural” problem, the unemployment rate for recent college grads would be relatively lower now than back in ’01; as that was a classical cyclical recession. But…
Read MoreEuro Budget Craziness
The European Stability and Growth Pact, that Germany is insisting on –-which requires governments to keep deficits to no more than 3% of GDP — is nuts. In good times, it promotes increased government spending but forces cuts in recessions. This exacerbates economic cycles and is the opposite of good policy. As long as it…
Read MoreDoctor, Doctor, Give Me the News
Over the next 20 years, 10K baby boomers turn 65 daily, doubling the number of Medicare enrollees. In part, that’s why annual Medicare spending is expected to reach an unsustainable $1 trillion by ’21; 20% of all government spending. While per capita costs continue to grow slowly of late, demographics will swamp any cost-containment solutions.…
Read MoreBaby, Baby?
The Friday File: Twin births in the US are soaring. In ’09, 1 in 30 babies born was a twin. In ’80 it was just 1 in 53! Why? Women in their 30s just have fraternal twins more often and 33% of all births are to women over 30, up from 20% in ’80, accounting…
Read MoreBugs and Drugs
Antibiotics (ABs) work against bacteria, not viruses. Yet out of ignorance, patients press doctors to prescribe ABs for viruses. Doctors do it to please ill-informed patients. Regrettably, this results in drug resistant bacteria; a terrifying public health hazard. The dilemma is that the gains from overuse of ABs are private (happy patients) whereas the costs…
Read MoreThe China Syndrome
China’s economy must slow dramatically, here’s why. China’s growth over the last few decades has been based on huge government investment. But good projects are getting hard to find and rich countries are growing slowly, if at all. Thus exports and export-lead investment will slow. To compensate, China must boost domestic consumption, now just 35%…
Read MoreGive Me Your Tired…
Christians, 33% of the world’s population, comprise half the world’s 214 Million Immigrants (MI). Muslims, 25% of the population, comprise 28% or 60 MI, Hindus, 15% of the population, comprise 5% or 11 MI, and Jews, 0.25% of the population, comprise 2%, or 4 MI. This means 25% of Jews have migrated to a foreign…
Read MoreSchool Rules
While the labor market is improving, high school dropouts aren’t seeing it. For dropouts over 25, the unemployment rate is 13%, while it’s just 8.5% for high school grads and 4.2% for persons with a college degree or more. Worse, the labor force participation rate is just 40% for dropouts while it’s 55% for high…
Read MorePC Porn
The Friday File: Of the million most popular websites, 4% are sex-related. If you count by search, about 10% to 15% of all searches are porn related. On a monthly basis, the most popular porn website regularly attracts 2.5% of all people on the Internet! As for the now available .XXX domain name, I bet…
Read MoreDeath by Economy
It’s known that mortality rates rise in economic expansions. Why? In better economic times, nursing care quality falls and since women use nursing homes at the end of their life way more than men, the bad care kills older women. As a result, the mortality rate for women over 65 is very cyclically sensitive and…
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