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Economic Models

05/10/2013

The Friday File: Female models like Heidi Klum and Bar Rafaeli make millions annually, yet there isn’t even one famous male model. I think this is this because women spend much more on fashion and cosmetics than men. Moreover, they…

House Work

05/09/2013

Part of the reason employment growth is so weak is that despite sizable increases in residential construction spending, increases in construction employment have been MIA. From April 2012 to April 2013, residential construction put-in-place increased from $249 billion to $295…

Where’s Daddy?

05/08/2013

In 2011, 4.1 million women gave birth, 36% of which were unmarried, up from 31% in 2005. 57% of women without a high-school degree, 49% of women with a high-school diploma, 40% of women with some college and 8.8% of…

Dangerous Debt

05/07/2013

The take-away message from the Reinhart-Rogoff error is that research mistakes happen, that higher debt levels are correlated with slower GDP growth, and that there is no debt threshold, 90% or otherwise, above which growth dramatically collapses. Rather, as the…

Economic Gamble

05/06/2013

In a hopeful sign for the economy, gross gaming revenues rose 4.8% in 2012 to $37.34 billion, and are now (not accounting for inflation or Native American casinos) just $180 million below the all-time high of $37.52 billion set in…

Pool Anyone?

05/03/2013

The Friday File: In August, houses with pools sell for about 0.2% more than homes without pools while in May, June and July pools add just 0.1%, half as much. Conversely, from November through March, swimming pools reduce house prices…

Poor Peso

05/02/2013

Running low on foreign reserves, Argentina is making it increasingly difficult for Argentines to purchase US dollars, which has widened the gap between the official exchange-rate and the black-market rate. And that has caused Argentines to make offshore purchases with…

Size Matters

05/01/2013

The Brown-Vitter proposal to force banks with assets over $500 billion to hold roughly double the capital of smaller banks, is overly simplistic. Big banks should be forced to hold extra capital to eliminate any “Too Big to Fail” funding…

Peaking Out

04/30/2013

Since the previous GDP peak in 12/07, real GDP has risen 3.18% or about $400 billion, yet total employment is down by 2.07% or about 2.9 million persons. This is because today’s workers are more productive. How much more? In…

Renovation Run

04/29/2013

Despite residential construction being on the mend, its contribution to GDP is tiny. During Q1 2013, the value of new single family construction was just $157 billion, or 0.98% of GDP, while residential improvements contributed $161 billion or 1%. This…

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