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Dollar Disruptions

12/13/2016

As the Fed begins to raise interest rates, it affects all nations but especially emerging markets. Rising rates, and thus improved US returns, vacuum up money from developing nations, causing their currencies to decline. This forces those nations to consider…

Bogus Boost

12/12/2016

Mega Mountains

12/09/2016

The Friday File: The highest mountain in the US is Denali at 20,320 feet. The next 22 tallest US mountains are also in Alaska. Outside Alaska, the tallest mountain is Mount Whitney in California at 14,494 feet. Of the 96…

Manufacturing Momentum

12/08/2016

11/16 was the first month since 12/14 that all five Federal Reserve bank regional manufacturing surveys were positive. The five Fed regional banks that survey manufacturers are Dallas, Kansas City, New York, Philadelphia, and Richmond. While all the indices have…

Perilous Pearl

12/07/2016

Seventy-five years ago today, a Japanese strike force of 353 planes staged a surprise 110 minute attack in two waves on Pearl Harbor, killing 2,403 Americans. Of the eight battleships in Pearl Harbor that day, four were sunk, one was…

Poor Policy

12/06/2016

Trump’s decision to essentially force Carrier to preserve 800 manufacturing jobs in Indianapolis is bad policy. If Trump thinks stunts like this will reverse the macroeconomic tide, he’s woefully uninformed. Moreover, other firms may threaten to outsource jobs to get…

Slight Slack

12/05/2016

Subtracting November’s excellent unemployment rate of 4.6%, (tops since 8/07) from the November U6 rate of 9.3%, the most expansive measure of unemployment and underemployment (and the best since 4/08), is a quick way to measure labor force slack. That…

Overwhelming Opera

12/02/2016

The Friday File: For the five years ending 7/31/16, the most popular opera composer was Giuseppe Verdi, with 14% of global performances. W.A. Mozart was next at 10%, then Puccini at 9%, and Rossini, Wagner and Donizetti all at about…

Irritating Italy

12/01/2016

The next shock to the global economy may come this Sunday. That’s when Italians vote on constitutional changes that Prime Minister Renzi has bet his job on and that aim to reduce institutional paralysis. Polls show Renzi’s referendum failing, forcing…

Buoyant Banks

11/30/2016

Net income at all 5,980 FDIC insured banks rose $5.2 billion Y-o-Y to $45.6 billion in 16Q3. Looking at the subset of 5,521 community banks, quarterly net income rose $593 million Y-o-Y to $5.6 billion. Better yet, fewer than 5%…

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