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Recessions tend to occur from sharp falls in auto sales, home construction, commercial construction, and corporate investment in plant and equipment. It’s because purchases of these items can generally be timed, unlike services, like healthcare. Importantly, unlike housing, which skyrocketed…

The US economy added 136,000 jobs in September, bringing the six-month average down to 154,000 from 223,000 a year ago, and Y-o-Y wage growth eased to 2.9%, its worst showing since 7/18. Moreover, manufacturing employment shrank, confirming there’s trouble in…

The Friday File: The world record for the number of stone skips in one throw is 88, set by American Kurt Steiner in 2013. The record he broke was 65 skips, set by Max Steiner (no relation). In Europe, where…

One reason Europe grows slower than the US is because it’s a goods producing powerhouse. That’s because EU rules allow goods to cross borders more easily than services. Unfortunately for Europe, service companies (like Google and Microsoft) are not only…

While the inverted yield curve isn’t good, it’s not as bad an omen as before. First, post-recession regulations have forced banks to hold more bonds. Second, the Fed now holds trillions in Treasuries. Third, rates in Europe are largely negative…

From 1980-2007, US savings rates declined from about 10% to 2.5%. They have since risen and are now 8.1%. Unsurprisingly, savings rose after the recession as households rebuilt wealth. Rates may also be up due to rising economic uncertainty. But…

The number of employees impacted by work stoppages between 1/1/19 and 8/30/19 is 375,000, the second highest level since 2000. This must be partly motivating the striking GM workers. Relatedly, the share of low-income Americans, households with incomes below $60,000/year,…

The Friday File: Despite sitting for hours and exerting themselves in no greater way than periodically extending their arms by maybe a foot, chess players can burn up to 6,000 calories/day during a tournament! That’s three times average consumption and…

After dragging GDP down for six straight quarters, housing looks to finally boost GDP, albeit slightly, in 19Q3! August existing homes sales hit their best level in almost 18 months, August starts were at their highest level since 6/07, mainly…

Given that an impeachment inquiry is just around the corner, and the chances of President Trump being impeached by year end have suddenly doubled to 42%, China now has less incentive to make a trade deal than before. However, the…