Economic activity in the US remains solid, albeit unspectacular. Today consumer confidence came in at 101.5, near its best level since 2007, and annualized July new homes sales rose 5%! Moreover, the Congressional Budget Office estimates that the FY2015 budget…
What is perhaps most remarkable is that the recent financial market turmoil is not emanating from Greek, Japanese, European or US economic weakness, but rather from slowing growth in the developing world. Exacerbating this is a total lack of confidence…
The Friday File: Contrary to popular belief, commercials featuring sex and violence or neutral ads that appear during violent or sexual programs are, at best, no more effective than ads with neutral themes that appear during neutral settings. Apparently, viewers…
Renewed oil and commodity price declines, along with deflationary pressures from a slowing China and its currency devaluation, has sown fear that developing nations will slow further, leading to capital outflows which will weaken their currencies and lead to even…
While many central banks have reduced the value of their currencies by lowering interest rates, the recently undertaken Chinese devaluation is different. When interest rates are lowered, it boosts the local economy by stimulating investment. The better performing economy then…
Through July, housing starts are up 11.3% YTD, an increase of 65,900 units. Single-family activity is up 11.2% or 42,200 units, while multifamily starts are up 11.6% or 23,600 units. As for permits, while up 14.2% YTD or 85,800 units,…
Given cheap oil, super low interest rates and massively expansionary monetary policy, it’s not surprising the euro-zone is finally growing. What’s surprising is that the Q2 rate was just 0.3%, lower than the dismal Q1 rate 0f 0.4%! With such…
The Friday File: In 1926, economist George Taylor articulated the Hemline Index. It suggests women wear shorter outfits in good times, longer ones in bad. Thus, the popularity of maxi dresses is terribly troubling. Fortunately, researchers have found that while…
The US government offers tax credits to promote “good” behavior such as buying an electric car or weatherizing a home. Regrettably, these plans are regressive. The top 20% of earners receive 90% of electric car credits and 60% of weatherization…
Having spent $300 billion supporting the renminbi over the last year, and with exports down 8.3% Y-o-Y and its economy slowing, China finally capitulated and let its currency depreciate. China may again need to lower interest rates and reserve ratios.…