The labor force participation rate has fallen substantially for workers with, at most, a high school degree. This fall in the supply of low-skilled workers should raise wages. Yet, their wages have fallen 25% compared to workers with a college…
The first post-Brexit US economic data point came out Friday, and it showed that consumer sentiment declined from 93.5 in June to 89.5 during the first 10 days of July; hardly surprising. Record numbers of households mentioned Brexit, including nearly…
The Friday File: The highest grossing musical tour in 2015 was Taylor Swift, with revenues of $250 million, followed by AC/DC at $180, One Direction at $159, U2 at $152 and Foo Fighters at $127. The highest grossing concert tour…
While stock markets have largely recovered from the recent Brexit vote, trouble lurks as witnessed by the continued plumbing of new depths by interest rates. 10-year US Treasuries recently hit a historic low of 1.36%, equivalent duration German bonds yield…
The percentage of homes with a mortgage in foreclosure in 5/16 was 1%, compared to 1.3% in 5/15 and a peak of 4.5% in 2010. The current rate is the lowest since 10/07 but is still double the historic average.…
For the last 25 years, for statistical reasons not entirely understood but having to do with residual seasonality, Q1 GDP has usually been very weak. As a result, the other three quarters have been somewhat elevated with Q2 usually being…
While the 287,000 net new jobs created in June was spectacular, the 11,000 net new jobs created in May was dismal. And, both give a false reading of the labor market. YTD, job creation is averaging 171,500/month compared to 220,333/month…
The Friday File: In 2014/15, the NBA’s salary cap was $63 million/team, in 2015/16 it was $70 million. This coming season it will hit an eye-watering $94 million, and the year after that, a stratospheric $107 million! This means starting…
While Republicans could generally be counted on to (at least rhetorically) push to reduce debt, cut entitlements, lower taxes and boost trade, now, all bets are off. With Trump, the Republicans have a protectionist who wants to keep entitlements unchanged,…
While short-term rates are extremely low, the Fed Funds rate is at 0.375%; monetary policy isn’t all that expansionary! The real interest rate — the fed funds rate minus inflation -– is roughly -1.25%, yet the rate that is neither…