Archive for October 2019

One reason Europe grows slower than the US is because it’s a goods producing powerhouse. That’s because EU rules allow goods to cross borders more easily than services. Unfortunately for Europe, service companies (like Google and Microsoft) are not only hugely valuable but are also more productive and pay better. Worse, the splintered eurozone has…

While the inverted yield curve isn’t good, it’s not as bad an omen as before. First, post-recession regulations have forced banks to hold more bonds. Second, the Fed now holds trillions in Treasuries. Third, rates in Europe are largely negative and fourth, the compensation investors demand for lending long is negative. All these factors act…

From 1980-2007, US savings rates declined from about 10% to 2.5%. They have since risen and are now 8.1%. Unsurprisingly, savings rose after the recession as households rebuilt wealth. Rates may also be up due to rising economic uncertainty. But savings rates jumped dramatically after the Trump tax cuts, strongly suggesting higher savings rates are…