The Bowtie Economist's Daily Dose of 70-Word Wisdom

Since 1/22, the daily change in bond yields on days the Fed releases meeting minutes (which happens eight times/year) versus all other trading days is insignificant. For the 2-year Treasury, on minutes release days the average absolute daily change is…

In 2013 and 2014, the number of weather/climate disasters exceeding $1 billion inflation-adjusted was 10. In 2017, the number hit 19, in 2020 it was 22, and after declining to 20 in 2021 and 18 in 2022, the number reached…

It took the Dow Jones Industrial Average 873 trading days to go from 30,000 on 11/24/20 to 40,000 on 5/16/24. The largest contributor to the increase was Goldman Sachs, which contributed 1,500 of the 10,000-point gain. Microsoft and Caterpillar both…

The Friday File: Drumheller, Alberta’s attempt to set the record for the largest gathering of people dressed as dinosaurs, failed due to high turnout. While a Guinness World Records adjudicator was present and counted over 3,000 people, they all had…

April real retail sales were flat M-o-M and Y-o-Y, extending a trend of mildly slowing sales. After jumping 15% due to Covid, retail sales remained strong through 1/23 but have weakened slightly as post-Covid services spending has, unsurprisingly, risen. Additionally,…

Inflation eased slightly in April. The CPI rose 3.4% Y-o-Y, down from 3.5% in March. Similarly, core-CPI rose 3.6% Y-o-Y, the lowest rate since 4/21 and down 3.8% M-o-M. However, both the CPI and core-CPI rose 0.3% M-o-M, much too…

In what can only be described as insanity, meme stocks such as GameStop, AMC, Blackberry, and Beyond Meat, are once again making headlines with their sudden rapid price appreciation. Monday, GameStop rose 74%, and AMC 78%. Since 5/1/24, GameStop is…

Recent research shows that for every percentage point that mortgage market rates exceed the rate currently enjoyed by the homeowner, the probability of sale is reduced 18.1%. This led to a 57% reduction in home sales with fixed-rate mortgages in…

The Friday File: Between 19Q1-24Q1 the market share of fast casual and quick service restaurants (QSR) that primarily sell chicken rose from 13.4% to 15.3%. Conversely, those selling primarily burgers declined from 61.3% to 60%, and the percentage specializing in…

The Fed is calling for real GDP growth of 2.1% in 2024 and 2% in 2025. Simultaneously, the nonpartisan Congressional Budget Office estimates that potential GDP, that is the increase in the labor force plus the impact of rising productivity,…