At the most recent Fed meeting, eight members expect there to be two 25bps cuts by 12/24, seven expect one, and four expect none. The median is one cut, the mode is two, and fifteen of nineteen, only 12 of which vote, expect one or two. It’s very fuzzy. Moreover, put almost no weight in these forecasts. Back on 12/13/23 and 3/20/24, the expectation was a total of three cuts.

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