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The tax gap, the sum of failed payments through non-filing, underreporting and underpayments, is rising. In 2020, it is estimated to be $601 billion and in 2021, $688 billion. During the 2017-2019 period, the gap averaged $550 billion and $496…
Read MoreThe Friday File: Last week astronaut Frank Rubio returned to Earth after having spent a US record-breaking 371 days in space. He was to return to Earth in March, but a micrometeorite poked a hole in his Russian-made return ship.…
Read MoreWhile September CPI rose 3.7% Y-o-Y, unchanged from August, it’s up from 3.2% in July and 3% in June. However, core inflation rose 4.1%, down from 4.3% in August, its lowest reading since 9/21, and the 11th decline in the…
Read MoreFrom 1/16 through today, the average interest rate on newly issued junk bonds has been 5.99%. While there were brief rate spikes to 10% in early 2016 and early 2020, they were short lived. Now things are different. Rates first…
Read MoreThe 2023 Nobel Prize in Economic Sciences was awarded to Claudia Goldin, the third woman to win the award since it was first awarded in 1969 and the second in the last five years. Her groundbreaking research is focused on…
Read MoreSeptember payrolls rose by a surprising 336,000 and July and August were revised up 119,000. Moreover, job growth was widespread, the participation rate is rising, and wage growth slowed to 4.2% Y-o-Y and to an annualized rate of 3.4% over…
Read MoreThe Friday File: 11% of Americans have one tattoo and 22% have more than one. 38% of women have at least one, while 27% of men do. There are no major differences by political party, or whether you live in…
Read MoreOn a Y-o-Y basis, the Freddie Mac Home Price Index, which includes only loans purchased by Freddie and Fannie and includes appraisals, was up 4% in August, versus 3% in July. Y-o-Y appreciation peaked in 7/21 at 19.1% and annual…
Read MoreHigh rates may finally be having an impact. August data showed M-o-M housing starts down 11.3% to their lowest level since 6/20, the housing index down sharply M-o-M for the second month in a row, and new home sales weakening…
Read MoreThe current expansion we are in hasn’t yet turned into a recession, largely because of substantial fiscal stimulus which has yet to fully dissipate. However, by year end excess savings will probably have been depleted, and starting in 23Q4 student…
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