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For the year ending 11/23, construction spending totaled $2.05 trillion, 7.3% of GDP, and is up 11.3% Y-o-Y. Total private construction was $1.59 trillion, up 10% largely due to private manufacturing which totaled $209 billion, up from $131 billion Y-o-Y,…

Repeated Revisions Through November, 10 of 11 monthly employment reports have been revised down. In CY2008, a recession year, 11 were downwardly revised. Conversely in CY2021, a boom year, 11 were revised up. Two things are occurring. A strengthening economy…

With December job creation at a solid 216,000, unemployment unchanged at a low 3.7%, the labor force participation rate sinking to 62.5% from 62.8%, December wage growth up a disappointingly strong 0.44% and Y-o-Y growth too strong at 4.1%, this…

The Friday File: Previously it was believed that having more money made you happier, up to about $75,000/year. Recent research has overturned that thinking. Research now shows that if you are an unhappy person, happiness increases with income till about…

During November, 20 states experienced coincident economic growth with most of the remainder contracting, a few were flat. Since 1979, every time fewer than 23 states were expanding there’s been a recession. Worse, the number of growing states has been…

Of all FOMC votes cast during Paul Volker’s tenure as Chair of the Fed, 10.7% were dissenting. During the Greenspan years, the dissenting vote percentage fell to 4.8%. During Bernanke’s time as Head Fed, dissenting votes were 7%, and during…

2024 likely won’t be a year of great economic growth because fiscal policy will be increasingly contractionary, savings rates will necessarily stop falling, and bank lending and thus the money supply will continue contracting. Additionally, the interest rate insensitivity exhibited…

I want to take this moment to wish everyone a great, risk-adjusted 2024. May it be a year of low unemployment, high wage gains, world peace, deep sleep, unbridled joy, love, health, falling inflation, lower interest rates, and a soft…

While the cost of gasoline has fallen from a high of $5.01/gallon in 6/22 to $3.07/gallon now, the differential between regular and premium, the premium ‘premium’ keeps rising. In 1994, the premium was $0.20/gallon, where it remained as recently as…

While the equity bull market has been unstoppable, it looks unusual. 72% of equities in the S&P 500 have underperformed the index. This is the highest total since at least 2000. 2020 was the next worst year when slightly over…