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The unemployment rate is currently 4%. Pre-Covid, it was 3.5%. Moreover, eight of 12 sectors have jobless rates above their pre-Covid levels, and two sectors are very close. The labor market has fully reverted. Moreover, Pre-Covid core PCE was 1.65%,…

The Fed’s ongoing policy of Quantitative Tightening has reduced the Fed’s balance sheet from $8.5 trillion to $6.8 trillion. This decline in assets has necessarily resulted in reduced liabilities in the form of reverse repurchase agreements (RRP) and bank reserves,…

The Friday File: The most visited museum in the world is the Louvre in Paris with 8.86 million visitors in 2023, down from 9.6 million in 2019. In second, the Vatican Museums at 6.76 million, then the British Museum with…

In 2000, the percentage of foreign exchange reserves held by governments in dollars was 71%. Today it’s 60%. Oddly, Euro/yen/pound holdings are virtually unchanged at 31%. China accounts for 25% of the shift from the dollar, largely due to Russia.…

Perhaps the key reason surveys of consumer sentiment are so lousy is the impact of inflation, or more accurately the cumulative rise in prices from 2021. What gets lost is even though real wages fell behind inflation in 2021 and…

May housing starts were 1.277 million annualized, down 19.3% YoY and at their lowest since 6/20. Multifamily starts fell a whopping 52% Y-o-Y, single-family starts were off just 1.7% Y-o-Y but are down three months in a row for the…

The CBO now projects the FY2024 deficit at 6.7% of GDP, up from 5.3% in February. Through 2034, revenues are expected to be around their 1974-2023 average of 17.3% of GDP, but spending is projected to be 24% of GDP,…

The Friday File: Among fast casual hamburger chains, Five Guys is most expensive at over $9/cheese burger, followed by Shake Shack and Smashburger at $7. With fries, Five Guys approaches $15, Shack Shake is over $11, and Smashburger just over…

Somewhat counterintuitively, medical procedure price transparency appears to slightly raise prices. Transparency does not impact the quality of service, and most critically and quite troublingly, does not increase consumer price shopping. This result of higher prices is strongest for low-cost…

During the Tech craze peak, the equity share of household assets was almost 32%. Today it’s 34%. Similarly, the equity share of household financial assets has risen from a peak of 45% during the dotcom boom to 50% today. Moreover,…