The Bowtie Economist's Daily Dose of 70-Word Wisdom

Pre-Covid, consumer credit grew by $15 billion/month and remained that way through 12/21. During CY2022, consumer credit growth jumped to $30 billion/month, but since 1/23 growth has steadily weakened and is now about $5 billion/month. Moreover, credit card balances declined…

The establishment survey reported May net new jobs of 272,000, way more than expected, and wages up 0.4% M-o-M and 4.1% Y-o-Y, both slightly hot. However, the household survey showed the labor force participation rate falling to 62.5%, the unemployment…

The Friday File: In 1981, the New Zealand sheep-to-person ratio peaked at 22 when the sheep population was about 70 million and the human population 3.2 million. Since then, the ratio has steadily fallen and in 2022 was just 4.6,…

Hoping to change jobs? Think again. The number of available jobs in April sank to 8.059 million, down from 8.355 million in March, 9.904 million a year ago, and a peak of 12.182 in 3/22. They are at their lowest…

Estimates of 24Q2 GDP growth are quickly sinking as more data becomes available. The Atlanta Fed is now expecting quarterly seasonally adjusted annualized growth of 1.8%, down from 4.2% in mid-May. Similarly, the NY Fed now also sees growth at…

During the run up to the Housing Bust, home prices surged and the value of revolving home equity loans rose dramatically from $185 billion in 2002 to $603 billion in 2009 as households tapped into their home equity and supercharged…

The April personal savings rate was just 3.6%, a level seen only in 2022 following repeated Covid stimulus and in 2005/06 in the run up to the Housing Bust. Moreover, excess Covid savings have been depleted, and the labor market…

The Friday File: On 5/12/24, Kami Rita Sherpa, Sherpa is a last name, age 54, scaled Mt. Everest for the 29th time. He has been regularly climbing Sagarmatha since 1994. Lhakpa Sherpa holds the record for the most ascents by…

In theory, stock splits boost the number of shares and reduce the price/share, leaving shareholders financially no better off. But reality is different. Since record keeping began, stocks that split have, on average, risen 25.4% during the first 12 months…

Despite higher premiums, reduced coverage, higher deductibles, and leaving entire states, over the last decade insurers paid more in homeowners insurance claims than they collected in premiums. Recently, this has been meaningfully exacerbated by rising reinsurance rates that insurers pay…