The Bowtie Economist's Daily Dose of 70-Word Wisdom

Employers created a respectable 206,000 net June jobs, but April and May totals were reduced by a hefty 110,000 and the unemployment rate rose from 4% to 4.1%, its highest level since 11/21. While a July rate cut is unrealistic,…

The Friday File: The most visited country in 2023 was France with 100 million visitors. In second was Spain with visitors totaling 85 million. The third most popular nation is the U.S. with 67 million tourists. Next is Italy with…

Today, 87% of the population will be celebrating our independence from Great Britain, the same as last year, and down slightly from the record 90% in 2013. Planned spending is expected to be $90.42/person, down slightly from last year’s record…

On Thursday, hours before the start of the presidential debate, the 10-year Treasury closed at 4.29%. Friday, the same 10-year Treasury bond closed at 4.3% and on Monday it closed at 4.48%. A two day rise of 19bps is a…

The unemployment rate is currently 4%. Pre-Covid, it was 3.5%. Moreover, eight of 12 sectors have jobless rates above their pre-Covid levels, and two sectors are very close. The labor market has fully reverted. Moreover, Pre-Covid core PCE was 1.65%,…

The Fed’s ongoing policy of Quantitative Tightening has reduced the Fed’s balance sheet from $8.5 trillion to $6.8 trillion. This decline in assets has necessarily resulted in reduced liabilities in the form of reverse repurchase agreements (RRP) and bank reserves,…

The Friday File: The most visited museum in the world is the Louvre in Paris with 8.86 million visitors in 2023, down from 9.6 million in 2019. In second, the Vatican Museums at 6.76 million, then the British Museum with…

In 2000, the percentage of foreign exchange reserves held by governments in dollars was 71%. Today it’s 60%. Oddly, Euro/yen/pound holdings are virtually unchanged at 31%. China accounts for 25% of the shift from the dollar, largely due to Russia.…

Perhaps the key reason surveys of consumer sentiment are so lousy is the impact of inflation, or more accurately the cumulative rise in prices from 2021. What gets lost is even though real wages fell behind inflation in 2021 and…

May housing starts were 1.277 million annualized, down 19.3% YoY and at their lowest since 6/20. Multifamily starts fell a whopping 52% Y-o-Y, single-family starts were off just 1.7% Y-o-Y but are down three months in a row for the…