The Friday File: On Tuesday, Senator Corey Booker (D-NJ) gave the longest Senate speech ever: 25 hours and four minutes. This broke the previous record of 24 hours and 18 minutes set by Senator Thurmond in 1957 while filibustering the Civil Rights Act. During this verbal marathon, Senator Booker couldn’t leave the Senate floor for…

Earlier today, President Trump imposed tariffs on the vast majority of imports entering the US. Retaliation from Canada, China, the EU, and other nations is now guaranteed. This trade war will reduce trade, raise prices, increase unemployment, and weaken economic growth. It will, regrettably, not meaningfully reduce the trade deficit. I wish this focus on…

In a brilliant move to increase transparency and worker productivity, the IRS will now allow payment of income taxes with Bitcoin, joining other nations including El Salvador. This move will cement the US as a crypto powerhouse, bring riches to all Americans, and reduce inflation. For tax purposes, the value of Bitcoin will be determined…

The Fed’s favorite inflation measure, core PCE, came in slightly hot at 0.4% in February, up from 0.3% in January. Y-o-Y inflation was also elevated at 2.8%, up from 2.7% M-o-M. Worse, over the last six months annualized inflation is 3.1%, over the last three months it’s 3.6%! Now, just wait until tariffs begin to…

The Friday File: In the early 1990s there were about 9,000 bank robberies/year. By the early 2000s, robberies were about 8,000/year. By 2010, they slid to 6,000/year, and in 2023 robberies numbered just 1,362. Why the huge decline? Less money to steal as banks better protect their money, thus dollars/robbery have fallen. Also, fewer banks…

On 12/31/24, US households held $38 trillion in public firm equities, 1.7 times disposable income. During the late 1960s, during the Dotcom Boom, and as recently as 2020, it reached but never exceeded 1.2. A decline in equity prices, now more than ever, risks reducing consumer sentiment and thus spending, particularly among the top 20%…

Cross-border fund flows are going to meaningfully shift as President Trump tries to reduce or eliminate trade deficits. Because the trade deficit is offset by the capital account, a lower deficit means fewer dollars being poured back into stateside physical assets, equities, and debt. So, more production and jobs at home, but higher capital costs…

Despite Secretary Lutnick’s recent comments, Social Security is a key source of income for many! Half of seniors get over half their income from SS, 25% of recipients get 90% or more. For those with a bachelor’s degree, SS provides at least 50% of income to one-third of recipients, 90% of income to 13% of…

After a significant rise in CEO optimism in the months following the November election, CEO confidence fell 20% in early March compared to January and is now at its lowest level since spring 2020. Making things worse, CEO forecasts for what conditions will be like in 12 months fell 28% from January and are at…