The Bowtie Economist's Daily Dose of 70-Word Wisdom

In 24Q3, household debt rose by $147 billion and now stands at $17.94 trillion. However, income increased faster in 24Q3 and now stands at $21.80 trillion. Therefore, the debt-to-income ratio continued its decline and is now 82%, meaningfully below the…

There are 2.3 million civilians working for Uncle Sam. 70% are in military/security related agencies. Veteran’s Affairs is the largest cabinet-level department/military branch with 486,522 employees, it’s the hospitals. Homeland Security follows at 222,539, then Army with 221,0437, Navy at…

In 2018/2019, President Trump imposed tariffs of $380 billion on thousands of imported products. The results: reduce GDP by 0.2%, the capital stock by 0.1%, employment by 142,000 full-time equivalent jobs, raise core-goods inflation by about 4% in the first…

While October retail sales came in slightly hot at 0.4% M-o-M, Vs. 0.3% expected, it was the huge upward revision to September retail sales from 0.4% M-o-M to 0.8% M-o-M that stole the show. This will necessarily lead to an…

The Friday File: Sales of “greatest hits” compilation albums, such as the Eagles Greatest Hits 1971-1975, America’s all-time best-selling album, have plummeted as streaming and resulting playlists have altered how we listen to music. Such sales had a recent peak…

While Trump speaks of wanting a weak dollar, imposing tariffs will strengthen it. It’s because imposing a tariff makes foreign goods more costly and that means fewer such goods will be imported and thus fewer dollars will be converted into…

Pre-election, consumer sentiment rose slightly. However, sentiment among the middle class slid, as did sentiment among the prime breadwinning 35–54-year-olds. Moreover, median wage growth expectations through 10/25 were very weak. Yet 60% of households think the bull market will rage…

The FY24 budget deficit was $1.8 trillion, 6.4% of GDP. Keeping the debt-to-GDP ratio flat requires the deficit not to exceed nominal GDP growth. Assuming that’s 4%/year, the deficit shouldn’t exceed $1.2 trillion in FY25, a decline of $600 billion…

While strongly desired, reality will constrain Republican tax cutters. Trump’s 2016 victory came with a 47 seat House majority, this time it’s maybe 11. In 2016, the deficit was 3.1% of GDP, it’s now 6.1%, and the national debt was…

The Friday File: While the median age of Nobel Prize winners is 55, it can take years for the career-defining work for which they are cited to be recognized. Chemists are in their mid-forties when their winning paper is published,…