Econ70

RISING RATE

09/26/2024

From 2010 until Covid, the neutral rate, the Fed funds rate that was neither expansionary nor contractionary, was near zero and rarely exceeded 2%. Many expect that going forward, the neutral rate will be systemically higher. The combination of a…

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CONSUMER CONFIDENCE

09/25/2024

The Conference Board’s consumer confidence index sank a whopping 6.9 points in August, its biggest one-month decline since 8/21, when inflation was beginning its dreadful climb. This time, the concern is labor markets. 18.3% of respondents consider “jobs hard to…

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INFLATION IRRELEVANCY

09/24/2024

Inflation fundamentals are stellar. Strip out lagging rents, and the remaining 93% of the CPI has slowed to a 1.7% Y-o-Y rate and is down to a 1% Y-o-Y rate over the six months to August. Moreover, the CPI on…

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HAUNTED HOUSING

09/23/2024

August existing home sales came in at a seasonally adjusted annualized rate of 3.86 million. This is down 2.5% M-o-M, 4.2% Y-o-Y, and marks the 36th straight month of year-over-year sales declines. August is the third straight month of sub-4…

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SUPER SHOHEI

09/20/2024

The Friday File: Yesterday, Shohei Ohtani became the first baseball player ever to hit at least 50 home runs and steal 50 bases in one season. Only six players (including Ohtani) are in the 40/40 club. Ohtani has stellar power,…

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PROFIT PERFORMANCE

09/19/2024

While corporate profit growth has, of late, been strong, only one-third of the growth has come from rising revenues. Corporate profits are being primarily driven by intense cost-cutting. We know this because unit labor cost growth has been zero Y-o-Y,…

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FANTASTIC FED

09/18/2024

In a move largely unexpected just days ago, the Fed cut the Fed funds rate by 50bps! This is an overt acknowledgement that the inflation battle is over, and that rising unemployment is now public enemy #1. While the Fed…

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UNCOMFORTABLY UNAFFORDABLE

09/17/2024

What is both amazing and absolutely terrifying about the current housing market is how unaffordable it is. The combination of ever rising prices and stubbornly high rates has reduced first-time housing affordability to its worst level since the mid-1980s. But…

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ECONOMIC EDUCATION

09/16/2024

While economists struggle to agree on many policies, there are some they coalesce around. When asked if giving the President more direct influence over monetary policy would lead to substantially worse monetary policy decisions, 94% agreed. Similarly, 95% agreed that…

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FANTASY FOOTBALL

09/13/2024

The Friday File: Invented in 1962 by Bill Winkelbach, a part owner of the dismally bad 1-13 1962 Oakland Raiders, fantasy football is now played by an estimated 55 million Americans, double the number that watch a NFL game. Winkelbach…

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