Econ70

CUT CONSTRAINTS

11/11/2024

While strongly desired, reality will constrain Republican tax cutters. Trump’s 2016 victory came with a 47 seat House majority, this time it’s maybe 11. In 2016, the deficit was 3.1% of GDP, it’s now 6.1%, and the national debt was…

Read More

WINNING WORK

11/08/2024

The Friday File: While the median age of Nobel Prize winners is 55, it can take years for the career-defining work for which they are cited to be recognized. Chemists are in their mid-forties when their winning paper is published,…

Read More

FISCAL FITNESS

11/07/2024

Portions of Trump’s 2017 tax cut have already sunset, others will expire in 2025. Extending the unexpired sections will cost $5 trillion through 2034 but will have no impact on GDP or inflation as they will simply extend existing policies.…

Read More

PRESIDENTIAL PREDICTIONS

11/06/2024

While the polls were once again disturbingly poor in telling us how voters planned to vote, prediction markets that rely on the wisdom of markets to offer odds on a candidate winning were materially better. The average odds from five…

Read More

PRESIDENTIAL PROMISES

11/05/2024

While VP Harris has a bachelor’s degree in political science and economics, and former president Trump graduated with a degree in economics, you would be hard pressed to know it from their campaigns. Both candidates haven’t just demoted economic principles…

Read More

WEAKENING WORK

11/04/2024

October employment growth was 12,000, the worst gain since 12/20. However, the Boeing strike reduced employment by 46,000 and the hurricanes undoubtedly also hurt. The unemployment rate held steady at 4.1% but only because the labor force declined by 220,000.…

Read More

NIFTY NOODLES

11/01/2024

The Friday File: In 2023, Americans spent $2.7 billion eating 5.1 billion servings of instant noodles, good enough for sixth in the world, and a per capita consumption of an impressive 15.2 servings. The U.S. remains well behind #1 China…

Read More

GREAT GROWTH

10/31/2024

24Q3 GDP came in strong at 2.8% annualized inflation-adjusted, with consumer spending rising a heady 3.7%, and not one component on the consumer side declined! Capital expenditures rose 11.1% and government chipped in with 5% growth, led by defense spending.…

Read More

ABODE ABSENCE

10/30/2024

At the onset of the 2008 Housing Bust, there was an excess supply of houses of 1.25 million, and that exacerbated the subsequent steep decline in home prices. Currently, there is a shortage of housing. Estimates, using very different methodologies,…

Read More

STOCK SUCCESS

10/29/2024

While you can get exceedingly wealthy buying just one stock, chances are this approach will fail you. From 1926-2022, over 50% of firms had a cumulative negative total return over their lifetime, 59% underperformed T-bills, a very low bar. Moreover,…

Read More

Recent Posts

Categories

Archives