Econ70

Estimates of 24Q2 GDP growth are quickly sinking as more data becomes available. The Atlanta Fed is now expecting quarterly seasonally adjusted annualized growth of 1.8%, down from 4.2% in mid-May. Similarly, the NY Fed now also sees growth at…

During the run up to the Housing Bust, home prices surged and the value of revolving home equity loans rose dramatically from $185 billion in 2002 to $603 billion in 2009 as households tapped into their home equity and supercharged…

The April personal savings rate was just 3.6%, a level seen only in 2022 following repeated Covid stimulus and in 2005/06 in the run up to the Housing Bust. Moreover, excess Covid savings have been depleted, and the labor market…

The Friday File: On 5/12/24, Kami Rita Sherpa, Sherpa is a last name, age 54, scaled Mt. Everest for the 29th time. He has been regularly climbing Sagarmatha since 1994. Lhakpa Sherpa holds the record for the most ascents by…

In theory, stock splits boost the number of shares and reduce the price/share, leaving shareholders financially no better off. But reality is different. Since record keeping began, stocks that split have, on average, risen 25.4% during the first 12 months…

Despite higher premiums, reduced coverage, higher deductibles, and leaving entire states, over the last decade insurers paid more in homeowners insurance claims than they collected in premiums. Recently, this has been meaningfully exacerbated by rising reinsurance rates that insurers pay…

While April core capital expenditures, defined as nondefense capital goods excluding aircraft, rose 0.3% M-o-M, March was revised down to -0.1% M-o-M. Moreover, Y-o-Y capex is now growing just 0.5% Y-o-Y, has been barely positive since 6/23, and inflation-adjusted has…

The Friday File: Originally known as Decoration Day, as Americans decorated Civil War soldiers’ graves on 5/30, Memorial Day became an official national holiday, and its date was made the last Monday in May, effective 1971. This year, 43.8 million…

In 2019, the number of S&P 500 firms mentioning inflation during their earnings calls averaged 129/quarter. In 20Q1, it collapsed to 58, but then steadily rose through 22Q2 when it reached 412. Since, it’s steadily declined and in 24Q1 is…

Since 1/22, the daily change in bond yields on days the Fed releases meeting minutes (which happens eight times/year) versus all other trading days is insignificant. For the 2-year Treasury, on minutes release days the average absolute daily change is…