Econ70
Unsurprisingly, the Fed left rates unchanged but put markets on notice that a mid-September cut is highly likely. The Fed is now, finally, concerned not just about inflation, which they described almost benignly as just “somewhat elevated,” but more importantly,…
Read MoreWhen the Fed began raising rates in 3/22, Fed funds was 0.125% and the CPI was 8.5%, thus the real Fed funds rate was a very stimulative negative 8.375%. Today Fed funds is 5.375% and the CPI is 3%. Thus,…
Read MoreWhile US consumer spending remains strong, incomes are not keeping up. Inflation-adjusted Y-o-Y income growth has slid from 5.3% a year ago, to 3.8% in 12/23 to 1% now, while real spending is up 2.6% Y-o-Y, a huge 1.6 percentage…
Read MoreThe Friday file: On 7/26/1903, Horatio Jackson was the first to cross the US by car. The journey from San Francisco to Manhattan with a mechanic took 63 days. The current record is 25 hours and 39 minutes, set in…
Read MoreThe first estimate for 24Q2 real GDP came in at a surprisingly strong 2.8% annualized rate, well above expectations of, at most, 2%, and well up from 1.4% in 24Q1. The result was due to rising inventories, strong consumer spending…
Read MoreThe cost of virtual consultation with a primary care physician is $99. Seeing the same doctor in their office raises the cost of service to $170. If you go to an urgent-care center/clinic the cost to provide care rises to…
Read MoreFor the year end 3/24, foreigners purchased 54,300 homes, down 36% Y-o-Y, and the lowest number since recordkeeping began in 2009. The biggest impediments; a strong dollar and limited inventory. Dollar volume fell 21% to $42 billion despite an average…
Read MoreWhile June housing starts were up 3% M-o-M to a 1.353-million-unit annualized rate, the rise was all volatile multifamily driven. Single-family starts fell 2.2% and are now down four months in a row. Moreover, June starts came in at 980,000…
Read MoreThe Friday File: On Thursday, my favorite comedian Bob Newhart died. His 1961 record “The Button-Down Mind of Bob Newhart (which I remember vividly) quickly led to “The Button-Down Mind Strikes Back. At one point they were #1 and #2…
Read MoreYesterday’s release of the Fed’s Beige Book, covering economic activity from mid-May through the end of June, will not be a best seller. While seven Fed districts exhibited growth, five districts recorded “flat or declining activity”. That is down from…
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