Archive for April 2024

If TikToc gets banned in the US, and that may take a while as the courts will be involved, the biggest winners are likely to be Meta’s Facebook and Instagram, and Alphabet’s YouTube and their respective video platforms Reels and Shorts. Meta is likely to pick up 55% to 60% of TikToc’s ad revenue with…

The total value of American property, excluding farmland, is $66 trillion. Of that, 25% is commercial, and of that office space is probably $4 trillion. Between 2007 and 2009, US residential real estate lost a third of its value, which today would mean a decline of $16 trillion. Even if office values fall by half…

Based on a quarterly survey of active managerial job seekers, during calendar year 2020 5% of such individuals relocated to find new employment. In 2021, the percentage fell to 4%, in 2022, the percentage declined further to 3.75%, and in 2023, and it slid to just 2.5%. The combination of super-low 30-year mortgages and probably…

Pre-Covid, income growth for the lowest income quartile was almost 5%/year, while for the other quartiles growth was 3.5%/year. By mid-2022, income growth for the bottom and second highest quartiles peaked at almost 8%/year but was nearly 6% for the other two quartiles. Now income growth is almost identical across all quartiles, ranging from 5.5%…

One reason the US economy has performed as well as it has despite rising rates and bank lending reluctance is the rise of private debt and equity. In 2008, banks and fund managers each had $12 trillion in assets. Today, bank assets are $23 trillion but fund manager assets total $43.5 trillion. This is also…

March existing home sales slipped 4.3% M-o-M to a seasonally adjusted rate of 4.19 million, the biggest M-o-M decline since 11/22. The February rise in mortgage rates undoubtedly hurt. Y-o-Y sales eased 3.7% to 4.35 million. March is now the 31st consecutive month with sales down Y-o-Y. It’s also possible that uncertainty regarding Realtor commissions…

The Friday File: The first American roller coaster was a stretch of repurposed coal mine railroad track in Pennsylvania’s Lehigh Valley in 1873. The chuch-chuch sound comes from the 1910 invention of the safety ratchet that prevents coasters from rolling backwards. Coney Island’s wooden Cyclone debuted in 1927, while Disney’s Matterhorn pioneered steel coasters in…

In an early April survey of business and academic economists, the percentage predicting a recession within the next two years declined from 39% three months ago to 29%. This is the lowest percentage since 4/22 when recession chances were pegged at 28%. Better yet, just 10% expect at least one quarter of negative growth over…

Pre-Covid, quarterly Treasury bond issuance, including new and mostly refinanced maturing debt, was $3 trillion/quarter. Since then, the deficit has jumped, and Treasury has increasingly relied on short-term debt to finance the government. Thus, quarterly Treasury issuance in 24Q1 was $7.2 trillion, breaking the previous 20Q2 record by a nose, and is likely to remain…