Archive for August 2019

The Friday File: Last week, Bob Long won the Mongol Derby. What’s so amazing is that Mr. Long, originally from Cheyenne, Wyoming, is 70 years old, and the Mongol Derby is the longest multi-horse race in the world at 1,000 kilometers. Bob crossed the finish line on the 8th day of the race having ridden…

The largest CO2 emitter is China with 29.3% of the global total. The US follows with 13.8%, then India at 6.6%, Russia at 4.8%, and Japan at 3.6%. Since 1990, total emissions have risen by 63.5%. Chinese emissions are 354% higher, Indian emissions are 305% higher, Japanese emissions are 14.9% greater, US emissions are unchanged,…

There are two huge trends the US is experiencing that receive scant attention. The first: plummeting fertility. Population growth due to birth over deaths in 2018 was 1 million, and keeps declining, down from 1.9 million as recently as 2007. The other: plummeting religious attendance. In 2000, 41% of Americans attended a religious service at…

The last recession was housing-bubble induced, the recession before dotcom-bubble induced. Now, there’s no one thing that jumps out. Trade is huge, so are political shocks; look at Brexit, the crises in Italy, India, Japan/South Korea, and Hong Kong! Add high levels of corporate debt and central banks with little room to cut. The next…

In 19Q1, 85% of new cars were financed, including leases, up from 76% a decade ago. Moreover, 32% of new-car loans were for six or seven years. Ten years ago, 12% were. Thus, 33% of car buyers now roll debt (averaging $5,000) from their old car into their new one; up from 25% before the…

The Friday File: Buying Greenland from Denmark is not so outlandish. The US purchased the USVI from Denmark in 1917 for $25 million so there’s precedent. As for Greenland, if the US offered $560 billion, each of its 56,000 inhabitants would receive a cool $10 million! Were a referendum held on the Island, I bet…

Despite just a thin majority of Fed interest rate setters supporting the last Fed cut, they will again cut rates in mid-September. This is because trade concerns have worsened, and more importantly, job growth for the year ending 3/31/19 was just revised down by 42,000/month! This means despite tax cuts, the economy and job growth…

The US dollar is today very highly valued compared to other currencies and is approaching highs last seen in 2002. In part, it’s because interest rates in the US are higher than elsewhere, and that increases demand for dollars by foreign investors. However, it’s also due to large US budget deficits which have boosted dollar…

Industrial production in China slowed to 4.8% in July, the lowest since 2/02, and 19Q2 GDP grew 6.2%, the slowest since 1992. British GDP shrank at an annualized rate of 0.8% in 19Q2, and German GDP fell 0.1% in 19Q2. But US retail sales grew by a spectacular 0.7% in July and 19Q3 US GDP…

19Q2 marked the 20th consecutive quarter of increasing household debt. During the quarter, debt increased by $192 billion, to $13.86 trillion. Mortgage debt rose by $162 billion to $9.406 trillion, surpassing the previous high of $9.294 trillion in 08Q3. Total debt is now $1.2 trillion, or 9.3% higher than the previous peak of $12.68 trillion…