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UFO UNDERSTANDINGS

03/22/2024

The Friday File: Between 2000-2023, the average number of UFO sightings per 100,000 persons in the US was 34.3. Lincoln County, NV, where fabled Area 51 is located, is tops at 820.9. Next is Arthur County, NE at 618.6, then…

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RETAIL REGENERATION

03/21/2024

While retailers closed 5,000 net stores in 2019, 6,000 net stores during pandemic-plagued 2020, and several hundred in 2021, since then the improvement has been amazing. In 2022, 1,500 net stores opened, in 2023 almost 500 opened, and YTD, 750…

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INCREASING INTEREST

03/20/2024

Despite many households locking in low mortgage rates, household interest expenses are skyrocketing. In 00Q4, the peak of the dotcom boom, interest expenses/GDP hit an all-time high of 2.2%. In 07Q2, shortly before the onset of the Housing Bust, interest…

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MORTGAGE MISERY

03/19/2024

The cost to a mortgage lender to complete a residential loan in 23Q4 was $12,485, the second highest level in the history of the series, and up from $11,441 in 23Q3. Unfortunately, revenue per loan barely rose. As a result,…

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COMMISSION CONSEQUENCES

03/18/2024

While the long-term impact of NAR’s agreement to end litigation brought on behalf of sellers, related to broker commissions, may take a while to become apparent, the immediate results were clear. On Friday, the day the agreement was announced, the…

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DOG DAYS

03/15/2024

The Friday File: A study of 584,734 dogs has found small, long-nosed, female dogs have the longest average lifespan at 13.3 years. The median canine lifespan is 12.5 years. Dogs with flat faces live an average of 11.2 years. Interestingly,…

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TAX TOTALS

03/14/2024

As of 3/1/24, the IRS issued 36.2 million refunds versus 42 million refunds Y-o-Y. However, tax filing season began on 1/23/23 compared to 1/29/24. That said, so far, the IRS has processed 53.2 million returns vs. 54.3 million last year.…

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POOR POLICY

03/13/2024

The new White House pilot program designed to save homeowners money by waiving the requirement for title insurance on some refinancings by some lenders is, while well intended, ill advised. It’s because at the margin this increases housing demand, which…

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RECOVERY RATE

03/12/2024

Since 1945, when equities retreat 5%-9.9%, on average it takes 1.5 months for markets to recover and recoup all losses. When markets experience a correction, a decline of 10%-19.9%, it takes on average 4 months to recover, and when they…

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DETRIMENTAL DATA

03/11/2024

February net job creation was a strong 275,000. However, January’s growth was dramatically revised down to 229,000 from 353,000, heaping more doubt on the quality of the monthly net employment numbers. Therefore, focus on the unemployment rate, which at 3.9%…

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