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Vaccine Variation In a survey of healthcare experts, 1% expect a Covid-19 vaccine to be available by 12/31/20, 25% more believe one will be ready during 20H1, and another 41% project having a vaccine in 20H2. Financial experts are decidedly…

Over the next months we are quite likely to hear the Fed speak about monetary policies such as forward guidance, explicit forward guidance, open-ended forward guidance, calendar-based forward guidance, yield curve control, price-level targeting, symmetric inflation targeting, asymmetric inflation targeting,…

Rather than dramatically slashing the extra $600/week in unemployment benefits coming from Congress, which is slightly reducing labor supply, do the following: Reduce the rate by $120/week for each percentage point decline in the state unemployment rate. If unemployment is…

The Friday File: the longest reigning monarch was France’s Louis XIV. He ruled from 1643 to 1715, 72 years and 110 days. Thai King Bhumibol Adulyadej who ruled from 1946 to 2014, a period of 70 years and 126 days…

In 20Q2, GDP declined by a whopping -9.5%, the worst quarter since record keeping began in 1947, probably the worst quarter ever. Since 1947, the worst contraction had been 2.6% in 58Q1. GDP began recovering in May and June, reducing…

Evidence suggests workers with more generous unemployment benefits are slightly more likely to have higher unemployment rates and return to prior jobs at slightly lower rates than those with less generous benefits. The certainty of higher benefits through 12/31/20 could…

With its recent rapid romp to over $1,900/oz, gold has easily surpassed the 2011 peak of $1,815/oz. In real terms, gold remains 5% below its 2011 high, and almost 50% below its 1980 peak. Why the melt up? Low interest…

Researchers believe Sar-Cov-2 kills between 0.5%-1% of those who contract it, and the number of US deaths is 150,000. Using the midpoint suggests 22.5 million persons in the US have or have had Covid-19. Separately, 4.2 million persons have tested…

The Friday File: While the lifespan of women living in, for example, the US averages 81.1 years vs. 76.1 for men, why is debated. A new theory suggests sex chromosomes. Across mammals, birds, reptiles, amphibians, sharks, bony fish, arachnids, and…

For the week ending 7/18/20, first time unemployment claims rose 109,000 to 1,416,000, the first rise in 16 weeks, and claims remain well above the pre-pandemic high of 695,000 in 1982. Yet, continuing claims keep declining and at 16.2 million…