The Bowtie Economist's Daily Dose of 70-Word Wisdom

In 1862, President Abraham Lincoln signed a revenue-raising measure to help pay for the costs associated with the Civil War. The measure created a Commissioner of Internal Revenue and the nation’s first income tax. The tax was 3% for income…

The Friday file: The world’s thinnest watch is, for the 9th time, a Bulgari, this time the Bulgari Octo Finissimo Ultra, at 1.7 millimeters (0.0669 inches). This breaks the previous 7/22 record of 1.75mm set by the RM UP-01 Ferrari,…

March CPI rose 3.5% Y-o-Y. This is unfortunately the 10th month in a row that headline CPI has been trendless and rangebound between 3.1% and 3.7%. The lowest reading since the 2021 inflationary rise was 3.1% back in 6/23. Moreover,…

In 1989, the Fed’s last rate hike was in 6/89 and 13 months later a recession began. In 2000, the lag between the Fed’s last hike and the recession was 10 months. In 2006, the lag was 18 months. And…

U.S. employers added a very strong 303,000 net jobs in March, the best level since 5/23, and there were upward revisions to January and February of 22,000. Better yet, the workweek rose, the labor force participation rate increased from 62.5%…

The Friday File: To watch Iowa’s Caitlin Clark is to watch, by far, the greatest women’s college basketball player ever. She’s an inspiring and sublime generational talent whose scoring, passing, and rebounding ability defy words. In her most recent Elite…

Compared to the 2006 Housing Boom peak, home prices are currently 71% higher. However, after accounting for inflation, home prices are just 10% higher. Thought of slightly differently, nominal home prices are exactly double what they were in 2004. That…

On 4/3/24, a drawing for a $1.09 billion Powerball jackpot will occur, the fifth largest. While the chances of winning are one in 292 million, Americans spent over $100 billion in 2022 buying lotto tickets and it’s mostly the poor.…

The economy continues to pleasantly surprise, to wit, 24Q1 GDP growth is being revised up, and thus rate cuts keep getting delayed. What’s going on? Several things. The rise in home prices and equities is slightly boosting consumer spending. Second,…